The Silent Crisis Behind the Iran War: How a Fertilizer Shortage Could Starve Tomorrow's Harvests

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A Bottleneck That Feeds the World

Most people think of the Strait of Hormuz as an oil highway. But the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman is also the lifeline of global agriculture. Roughly 30 percent of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade passes through it – and since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, traffic through the strait has essentially ground to a halt.

The consequences for farmers and food markets worldwide are now becoming alarmingly clear.

Supplies of urea – the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer – have been sharply curtailed. Qatar's state energy company, QatarEnergy, halted downstream urea production after suspending its liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations. Flows of sulphur and ammonia, both key ingredients in a wide range of fertilizers, have also been disrupted. At least two million metric tons of urea production have been lost since the conflict began, according to commodity analysts at Argus Media.

Prices That Farmers Can't Afford

The price shock has been swift and severe. Urea prices have surged roughly 49 percent since the war began. Liquid nitrogen is up approximately 38 percent. A survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 70 percent of U.S. farmers say fertilizer has become so expensive they cannot buy all they need for this growing season.

This is not 2022. When Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago and fertilizer prices last spiked, grain prices were high enough to help farmers absorb the blow. Today, that cushion is gone. Chicago wheat prices are roughly half what they were in 2022. Soybeans are nearly 50 percent lower than their recent peaks. Many farmers are now spending more to grow crops than they can earn selling them.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture already projects that net farm income will fall in 2026, and total farm debt is expected to hit a record 624 billion dollars. The fertilizer crisis lands on ground that is already cracking.

The Cascading Effects Region by Region

The disruption is not just an American problem. Its effects are rippling across every major agricultural region on the planet.

Australia may be the canary in the coal mine. In Western Australia – the country's primary wheat belt – one industry group now expects wheat planting area to fall by 14 percent, as growers abandon the fertilizer-intensive, low-margin crop. Analysts at BMI warn that a visible drop in Australian yields would be an early warning signal for what the rest of the world can expect later in the year.

Brazil, the world's largest soybean exporter, imports the vast majority of its fertilizer. Analysts expect Brazilian farmers to shift to cheaper, less effective products or simply reduce application rates – likely dragging down yields for one of the planet's most important protein crops.

Southeast Asia faces its own risks. Palm oil – the world's most widely produced edible oil, already in tight supply – could see yield declines. Agronomists warn that fertilizer shortfalls pose particular long-term risks to younger oil palm trees, whose productive potential could be set back for years.

Europe is not immune either. Spring planting decisions in France and other countries are already shifting away from fertilizer-intensive corn. More critically, analysts are beginning to worry about the autumn planting season – the moment when European farmers decide how much grain area to sow for 2027. "That's why we're starting to get a little worried about the 2027 harvest," one commodity analyst at Expana has noted.

China Adds Fuel to the Fire

Compounding the global squeeze, Beijing has moved to restrict its own fertilizer exports, protecting domestic supply at the expense of international markets. China is one of the world's largest fertilizer producers, and its withdrawal from export markets tightens an already dangerously thin supply picture.

This is consistent with a broader pattern. China's Communist Party leadership has repeatedly used export restrictions on critical materials and commodities as a strategic lever during periods of global stress. In a world already struggling with the fallout from the Hormuz blockade, Beijing's inward turn leaves import-dependent nations – many of them among the world's poorest – even more exposed.

The Hunger Math: Who Pays the Highest Price

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is sounding the alarm in stark terms. FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero has warned that between 20 and 45 percent of the world's key agricultural inputs depend on sea passage through the Strait of Hormuz. "The clock is ticking," he said.

The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that if the war continues beyond June 2026 with oil prices staying above 100 dollars per barrel, the number of people facing acute hunger could increase by 45 million. The sharpest consequences are expected in poor, import-dependent nations that cannot absorb higher input costs.

East Africa is considered particularly vulnerable. In Malawi alone, roughly 22 percent of the population already faces high levels of acute food insecurity. Countries like Somalia, already dependent on international food aid, could face additional pressure as shipping costs for humanitarian supplies rise by 30 to 60 percent or more.

In South Asia, nations like India – the world's largest rice producer – are booking record volumes of urea imports at nearly double the prices paid just two months ago. Poorer countries that cannot match those prices risk being priced out of the market entirely.

No Quick Fix Once the Shooting Stops

Even an immediate ceasefire would not quickly resolve the crisis. According to commodity intelligence analysts at ICIS, simply clearing the backlog of vessels already waiting in the Gulf could take weeks. Damage to production facilities in Qatar and across the Persian Gulf region, combined with competition for limited alternative supplies, means fertilizer availability will likely remain constrained for months regardless of how the conflict ends.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) warns that the fertilizer sector remains structurally vulnerable, with production heavily concentrated in a small number of countries dependent on cheap natural gas or specific mineral deposits. Building resilience into that supply chain is a project measured in years, not weeks.

For now, millions of farmers across the world face a grim arithmetic: cut fertilizer, risk lower yields, take on more debt – or step back from planting altogether.

The harvests of 2026 and 2027 may tell a story that began not in the fields, but in a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.

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Sources

1. Reuters – "Iran war fertiliser squeeze could spell trouble for next year's grain harvests" (April 27, 2026): https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-war-fertiliser-squeeze-could-spell-trouble-next-years-grain-harvests-2026-04-27/
2. UN News / FAO – "Clock is ticking: Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis" (April 2026): https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/04/1167289
3. IFPRI – "The Iran war's impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production" (April 2026): https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-wars-impacts-on-global-fertilizer-markets-and-food-production/
4. CSIS – "Iran, Fertilizer, and Food Security: Risks, Impacts, and Policy Responses" (April 2026): https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-fertilizer-and-food-security-risks-impacts-and-policy-responses
5. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – "Fertilizer isn't getting through the Strait of Hormuz" (March 2026): https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/03/fertilizer-iran-hormuz-food-crisis
6. CNBC – "Fertilizer prices surge amid Iran war, sparking food security warnings" (March 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/fertilizer-price-iran-war-food-security-inflation-urea-potash-nitrogen-farmers.html
7. NBC News – "How the Iran war could shatter global food security" (March 2026): https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-war-shatter-global-food-security-rcna265585
8. Al Jazeera – "Not just energy: How the Iran war could trigger a global food crisis" (March 2026): https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/18/not-just-energy-how-the-iran-war-could-trigger-a-global-food-crisis

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