Continued Cross-Border Hostility Risks Pushing Canada Into the Arms of the CCP
Udumbara
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For the best part of my own lifetime and those of my parents and grandparents, Canada and the USA have enjoyed the best bilateral partnership in the democratic world. From NORAD to NAFTA, from shared sacrifice in war to shared prosperity in peace, the “undefended border” has symbolized not just geography but identity: two nations built on Anglo-constitutional traditions, free enterprise, and democratic norms.
I have great personal memories of attending a gala performance in the Grand Théâtre de Québec which ended with Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, President Ronald Reagan, and their wives singing “When Irish Eyes Are Smiling” while their respective cabinet members looked on approvingly from the balconies above our seats. The Reagan–Mulroney alignment was built around several clear objectives: strengthening economic ties, modernizing the bilateral trade framework, deepening defence cooperation within NATO and NORAD, and presenting a united front against adversaries. Their cooperation laid the groundwork for a Can-Am free trade agreement, expanded joint security capabilities, and reinforced a coordinated approach to countering the ambitions of totalitarian states such as the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China.
The Perils of Romance on the Rebound
Like most regular folks who feel betrayed in a relationship, estranged geopolitical allies don’t always retreat into isolation—they look for a new partner. Human nature abhors rejection and ill-considered rebound romances are frequently the result. However, based on history, there is a risk that Canada’s leadership could be tempted to seek closer ties with the most dangerous potential suitor: the People’s Republic of China.Before this year, Canada’s relationship with Beijing had reached its lowest point in generations. After the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou and China’s retaliatory detention of two Canadians (“the two Michaels”), it appeared Ottawa had woken up to the nature of the Chinese Communist Party: coercive, expansionist, and contemptuous of the Western liberal order.
Today, however, the pendulum is swinging back. Canada’s ambassador to the PRC has openly acknowledged the government’s intention to “stabilize and improve” relations. Prime Minister Carney has met with Xi Jinping to discuss enhanced cooperation. And while the government couches this in the language of “pragmatism,” the underlying driver is unmistakable: economic necessity and strategic loneliness. With the United States shutting doors—threatening auto-sector supply chains, imposing new tariffs, and treating Canada as an adolescent irritant rather than a partner—Ottawa is hedging its bets.
What a Canada-China Courtship Could Look Like
The CCP is antithetical to traditional Canadian values. But economic, geopolitical, and cultural entanglements can change affections. It only requires opportunity, incentives, and fear of alternatives. That is the danger.A rapprochement between Canada and the PRC could evolve in several ways. China needs energy, minerals, and food. Canada could produce all three in abundance. A sustained cooling of U.S.–Canada trade could open the way for long-term Chinese resource contracts, preferential investment, and strategic stakes in Canadian mining and energy infrastructure. If China deepens economic ties with Canada’s Pacific provinces, it gains influence over the political dynamics of British Columbia and the Arctic. That could translate into pressure on shipping regulations, Arctic transit, and access to dual-use infrastructure. The potential to empower China at the top and bottom of the North American continent—Arctic and Panama approaches—should be Washington’s worst nightmare.
The Choice for Washington and Ottawa is Narrowing
Canada still shares more with the United States than with any other country on earth. But relationships are built on social capital—trust and reciprocity. For the first time in 70 years, liberty-loving North Americans of all stripes are questioning whether politicians understand that. None of this is inevitable and likely to happen overnight, but windows of opportunity to correct the rift are closing.When America signals that strict conformity matters more than friendship and deference matters more than partnership, smaller nations like Canada are pushed to look elsewhere for a secure partnership. The United States should not want to create a hostile or compromised Canada, and Canada should not want to replace a democratic ally with a totalitarian one. The entire northern border, the Great Lakes industrial basin, the Arctic approach, and the continental defence architecture depend on the traditional North American alliance.
If the Can-Am friendship continues to fray, not because of national interest but because of political theatrics and personal vendettas, the power vacuum will not remain empty. China will move to fill it—quietly, patiently, and permanently. Progressive journalists already appear delighted that the Canadian prime minister’s forthcoming visit to China could be the signal of a “turning point” in the countries’ relationship.
The choice between renewal or drift, partnership or estrangement, lies with people on both sides of the Canadian-American border. Do we want a more closely united democratic North America or a divided one? History has given Canada and the United States a rare gift—neighbours who are also good friends. It would be tragic, and dangerous, to squander it.
