Widening Defense Purges Deal a Blow to Xi’s Military Ambition: Analysts
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The Chinese regime has launched an investigation into the military’s most senior general, an unexpected development that raises fresh questions about the country’s armed forces’ readiness and the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) ability to mount an invasion of Taiwan.
The defense ministry announced an investigation into Gen. Zhang Youxia, the first deputy chairman of the Central Military Commission and a member of the elite Politburo, in a two-line statement on Jan. 24.
No further details were provided, except for the accusation of “serious discipline and law violations.” This Party jargon is a common euphemism for corruption, but it can also refer to disloyalty or other misconduct.
Outside observers say the latest probe of Zhang and his associate Gen. Liu Zhenli, whose investigation was also made public by the defense ministry on Jan. 24, could have far-reaching consequences for the military and the communist party.
‘Life-or-Death Struggles’
With Beijing’s latest announcement, five of the six men appointed to the Central Military Commission—which exercises the CCP’s control over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)—at the start of the current five-year term in late 2022 have been purged.
For decades, Zhang Youxia was regarded as Xi’s ally. Their fathers had fought side by side during the Chinese civil war nearly 80 years ago. Xi and Zhang have known each other since childhood. When Xi came to power in late 2012, he appointed Zhang to the Central Military Commission, where the general eventually rose to the position of second only to Xi.
In recent years, however, Zhang and Xi have grown apart on significant policy issues, particularly regarding how the Party should handle Taiwan, according to those close to the military leadership.
Analysts who spoke to The Epoch Times say that understanding the true reasons for Zhang’s purge is challenging, given the opacity of the Chinese regime. But they view the top military officer’s downfall as the result of ongoing factional warfare within the Party, rather than the corruption the authorities suggest.
“The latest development underscores the deep contradictions and internal rifts within the Party and the military, once again laying bare the authoritarian nature of the CCP regime,” Wen told The Epoch Times.
Instead of peaceful or judicial solutions, Wen said, “internal disagreements—whether within the Party or among its factions—are settled only through life-or-death struggles.”
More Military Chiefs to Fall
The biggest challenge facing the CCP is determining whom they can tap to fill these vacancies in the PLA leadership, according to Shen Ming-shih, an expert on China’s military at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a Taiwanese government-funded think tank.Given the seniority of the latest purged officers, many current lieutenant generals who advanced through the ranks under them could be implicated in the ongoing investigation into the military chiefs, potentially leading to further dismissals, Shen said.
“This could hollow out the PLA’s top ranks,” Shen told The Epoch Times.
If these vacancies are filled by commanders without combat experience, it could heighten the risk of the PLA adopting a more assertive posture, potentially leading to expansion or the use of force, as such promotions are tied to officers’ political loyalty, the Taiwanese expert noted.
Taiwan Invasion?
The deepening political cleansing could impact the Party’s ability to invade Taiwan, according to Chung Chih-tung, an expert on Taiwan’s security strategy at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei.Xi has made what the CCP calls the “reunification” of Taiwan a primary goal, and has publicly refused to rule out the use of force to capture the island.
If the Chinese authorities intend to seize Taiwan, they’ll need commanders who have fought in a war to execute an invasion, Chung told The Epoch Times.
“Currently, there is not a single general at the Central Military Commission who has combat experience,” Chung said. “This will inevitably impact Beijing’s calculations on taking Taiwan by force and even the overall military combat readiness.”
