Beijing's Energy Weapon: China Threatens to Cut Off the Philippines Over U.S. War Games

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Fuel as a Political Weapon

It has long been feared, and now it is happening openly. China's ruling Communist Party is linking emergency energy supplies to the Philippines with a political demand: stop holding military exercises with the United States.

On Tuesday, April 21, the People's Daily — the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party — published a sharply worded editorial accusing Manila of hypocrisy. The Philippines had reportedly sought emergency fuel and fertilizer supplies from China, while simultaneously launching the annual "Balikatan" military exercises with the U.S. and a coalition of Western allies. In Beijing's view, the two things cannot coexist.

The commentary appeared under the pen name "Zhong Sheng" — meaning "Voice of China" — a pseudonym traditionally used to signal the views of top party officials on foreign policy matters.

What Beijing Is Actually Saying

The editorial stopped short of an outright ultimatum. Analysts noted the language was carefully chosen. Rather than making an explicit threat, Beijing called on Manila to "create the right conditions" for improved bilateral ties — diplomatic language that carries a clear implied meaning.

Eric Olander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project, described the commentary as suggesting a veiled quid pro quo rather than a direct demand. In his reading, the real message was that the Philippines cannot expect Chinese economic goodwill while simultaneously, in Beijing's view, "stirring up trouble" in the region.

This kind of pressure is not entirely new. Beijing has previously restricted critical mineral exports to Japan during periods of diplomatic friction. What is new is the application of this logic to energy supplies — a far more immediate and vital commodity for any nation's economy.

The Balikatan Exercises: Why Beijing Is Alarmed

The "Balikatan" exercises — the name means "shoulder-to-shoulder" in Filipino — are an annual tradition between the Philippines and the United States. This year's edition, running until May 8, is the largest in the exercise's history, involving more than 17,000 troops and participating nations including Australia, Canada, France, and New Zealand.

What particularly alarms Beijing is the location. Maritime strike drills are scheduled to take place on Itbayat Island, the northernmost point of the Philippine archipelago — just 155 kilometers from Taiwan. Counter-landing live-fire exercises are planned near Zambales province on the South China Sea coast, approximately 230 kilometers from the disputed Scarborough Shoal, which China currently controls.

For Beijing, exercises of this scale, in these specific locations, represent a direct challenge to its territorial ambitions — both in the South China Sea and regarding Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory.

China's Energy Position: Strength With Limits

China holds the world's largest strategic oil reserves, giving it significant leverage in any energy dispute. It is also the world's second-largest fertilizer exporter and a major refined fuel supplier across Asia. Since reports emerged in March 2026 that Beijing had ordered a temporary ban on fuel exports to prioritize domestic supply — a consequence of the ongoing crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz — neighboring countries have felt the pressure.

Separately, Chinese President Xi Jinping publicly called for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday — a sign of just how much economic stress the closure of this critical shipping route is placing on China's $19 trillion economy.

But analysts caution against overstating Beijing's position. Ruby Osman of the Tony Blair Institute noted that China's strategic reserves, while large, are being actively drawn down. Beijing has limited control over the duration and scale of the current disruption — meaning its energy leverage is a finite asset, not an unlimited one.

A Pattern of Coercion

The Philippines and China have been locked in an escalating dispute over competing claims in the South China Sea, particularly around Second Thomas Shoal. Manila grounded an aging warship there in 1999 as a sovereignty marker, and has since conducted regular resupply missions to the sailors stationed on board. China has repeatedly attempted to interfere with those missions, in incidents that have grown increasingly confrontational over recent years.

Beijing's decision to frame energy assistance as conditional on Manila's foreign policy choices fits a broader pattern. Earlier this year, Chinese officials offered Taiwan what they called "energy stability" — in exchange for accepting Beijing's rule over the island. Critics called it a transparent attempt to use economic dependency as a vehicle for political submission.

The use of such tools reflects a consistent philosophy within the Communist Party: economic ties are not purely commercial arrangements, but instruments of political influence. Nations that resist Beijing's agenda should not expect Beijing's generosity.

The Bigger Picture

What is unfolding between China and the Philippines is not an isolated bilateral dispute. It is a test case for how Beijing intends to manage its relationships across the Indo-Pacific as the United States and its allies deepen their military presence in the region.

The Trump administration has strongly backed the Balikatan exercises and the broader alliance framework they represent. Washington views a robust U.S.-Philippine military relationship as essential to deterring Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and across the wider region — a position that Beijing clearly finds unacceptable.

Whether Manila will bow to the pressure remains to be seen. What is already clear is that Beijing has decided economic coercion is a legitimate tool of statecraft — and that it is prepared to use it.

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Sources:

1. Reuters – "China flexes energy leverage as the Philippines, US start annual war games" (April 21, 2026): https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-flexes-energy-leverage-philippines-us-start-annual-war-games-2026-04-21/
2. Reuters – "China restricts fuel exports amid domestic supply concerns" (March 2026): https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/
3. Radio Free Asia – South China Sea tensions and Second Thomas Shoal coverage: https://www.rfa.org/english/southchinasea
4. Human Rights Watch – Documentation on China's use of economic coercion: https://www.hrw.org/topic/china

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