China’s Future AI Drone Army Could Defeat the US

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China can now produce 1 million consumer drones annually, whereas the United States can produce only tens of thousands. Chinese military researchers have filed 930 patents since 2022 related to swarm intelligence, which is key to the success of large numbers of military drones in combat. Meanwhile, U.S. researchers have only filed 60 such patents.

It appears on the surface that the Chinese military, known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), could be pulling ahead in its development of artificial intelligence (AI) drone armies.

The PLA has already trained military AI-controlled drones using the patterns and behaviors set by predator animals such as coyotes and hawks. Its weapons include robot wolves and hovering drones, both equipped with automatic rifles. The PLA is working to marry the two systems for coordinated combat from the air and ground. In at least one trial, the hit rate at 100 meters was 100 percent.

The PLA’s Jiutian “mothership” drone can launch a swarm of small suicide drones. Its Swarm 1 system can launch up to 200 fixed-wing drones nearly simultaneously from multiple trucks.

The PLA is not only focused on developing the spear of AI drones but also on their accompanying shield. Were the PLA to attack Taiwan, for example, it would need a drone shield to defend against retaliatory Taiwanese drone strikes. In one test of five incoming drones pitted against five hawk drones, the latter defeated all of the attackers in 5.3 seconds.

The PLA has also showcased a broad microwave weapon capable of sweeping across and defeating an entire swarm of drones. The PLA claims that its anti-drone microwave can defeat drones at 3 kilometers (nearly 2 miles), while a similar U.S. system is reportedly effective only up to 2 kilometers.

This and the other drone gaps could contribute to the failure of deterrence over the Taiwan Strait. When combined with AI, China’s drone swarms could give the PLA the edge it needs to take Taiwan, contain U.S. forces in Asia, and then start imposing more military pressure on Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.

Chinese drones go for a quarter of the price of their U.S. counterparts, making them highly competitive on international markets. China’s robust drone and drone parts production gives it immense influence over countries like Russia and Ukraine, both of which depend on Chinese drones. Despite supposed Chinese export controls, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is facilitating the export of drones to both sides in the war through front companies and transshipment countries. This is prolonging the war and weakening Russia and Ukraine as counterbalances to the CCP’s long-term territorial ambitions in Russia’s far east.

The combination of AI and a mass industrial infrastructure capable of producing millions of drones annually enables the further centralization of the CCP’s power. Whereas previously this centralization was accompanied by the problem of soldiers and commanders who did not feel capable of making independent decisions, the AI-drone combination transcends this weakness for the CCP’s leadership. Xi Jinping, who leads the CCP, can theoretically set a military goal for AI and then allow it to rapidly direct his human and drone military to execute.

Another risk is that the CCP’s breakneck speed in developing AI systems is leaving safety considerations aside. That could lead to China’s military AI going rogue and acting outside human control. This might lead to blowback against China or the entire human race.

Inexpensive Chinese drone technology is already invading U.S. markets and homes. It can be used for surveillance purposes, and potentially worse if a swarm of civilian drones were simultaneously hacked, for example, and used to pick up and drop off large quantities of fentanyl dust over a city. With the proliferation of the Internet of Things (IoT) and mobile drone technology from China, the risks seem to be rapidly multiplying.

China’s influence in the United States is apparently part of the problem. In early January, the Commerce Department canceled plans to limit some Chinese drone technologies, apparently in preparation for President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to China. China’s DJI drone maker is still subject to some restrictions, most importantly on new drone models. However, DJI could be doing an end-run by rebranding its new drones as American-made.

The United States and our allies in Europe and Asia should accelerate our defensive drone capabilities and consider how to democratize China or otherwise preempt the CCP before its drone armies get built and become too powerful. The speed at which the PLA is developing likely means that the longer we wait, the harder democracy’s defense will become.