War, Oil and a New Fed Chair: Five Things That Will Shape Global Markets This Week

.

The Man Who Could Replace Jerome Powell

The biggest moment for financial markets this week happens not on a trading floor but in a Senate hearing room. On Tuesday, April 21, the Senate Banking Committee will convene at 10 a.m. ET to consider the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Member and Chairman of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors.

Warsh is no ordinary candidate. He is a former Federal Reserve Governor and Morgan Stanley executive, nominated by President Trump in late January to steer the nation's central bank through what supporters describe as a pivotal era of technological transformation and fiscal realignment. And he comes with a price tag: his financial disclosures show assets valued between $131 million and $209 million, making him considerably wealthier than any previous Fed chair.

But the path to the Fed's top job is anything but smooth. Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a senior Republican on the Banking Committee, has said he will refuse to vote for Warsh unless the Justice Department drops its ongoing investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Since Republicans hold only a razor-thin committee majority, Tillis's vote is critical. A spokesperson for Tillis confirmed he "will support Kevin Warsh once the DOJ investigation has concluded."

Meanwhile, Trump has been turning up the pressure on Powell from the other direction — threatening to remove him from his Fed board seat before his term as Chair officially ends on May 15.

Oil Near $100: Peace Hopes vs. Hard Reality

The Iran war, now well into its second month, remains the single most powerful force moving global markets. President Trump said the conflict is "very close to over" and that "the stock market is going to boom" once it ends — but oil markets are telling a different story.

Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation in talks held in Islamabad, said negotiations failed because Iran would not provide an "affirmative commitment" that it will not seek a nuclear weapon. Following that breakdown, Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to intercept any ship that pays Iran a transit toll through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway that, before the conflict, carried roughly 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Analysts from ING estimate that approximately 13 million barrels per day of oil flow has been disrupted by the closure of the Strait, after accounting for pipeline diversions and the minimal tanker traffic that has managed to pass through. Goldman Sachs paints a similarly bleak picture: flows through the strait are running at just about 10% of normal levels, roughly 2.1 million barrels per day.

Stock markets, especially in the U.S., are betting on a diplomatic resolution and have bounced back toward record highs. Oil traders are far less optimistic — and for good reason. Until ships move freely again through the Strait, energy prices will stay elevated, squeezing consumers and corporations alike.

A Gloomy Spring for Business

Beyond the geopolitics, this week brings a wave of economic data and corporate earnings that will reveal just how badly the energy shock is hitting the real economy.

Surveys from March already showed rising input costs and slowing business activity across the board. The conflict has echoed the 1970s energy crisis through acute supply shortages, currency volatility, inflation and heightened risks of stagflation and recession.

In Europe — which is heavily dependent on energy imports — airlines, retailers and manufacturers are all grappling with soaring fuel costs and fractured supply chains. The United States, as a net energy exporter, is better buffered, but far from immune. Investors will scrutinize the upcoming Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports — monthly surveys of business activity — for signs of deeper stress in prices and employment.

Inflation figures from Japan, the UK, New Zealand and Canada are also due this week. None are expected to bring good news.

Asia Squeezed From All Sides

Emerging Asian economies are under particular pressure. China sets its loan prime rate on April 20, though analysts expect Beijing to hold steady — the world's second-largest economy is coping relatively well compared to its more import-dependent neighbors.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has been described as the largest oil supply disruption in history, and countries like Indonesia and the Philippines are feeling it acutely. Indonesia's central bank, meeting on April 22, must defend a rupiah that has recently hit record lows. The Philippines' central bank, gathering a day later, has already warned of "spillover effects" after inflation broke through its official target range in March.

Turkey's 40% Moment

Perhaps the most dramatic central bank meeting of the week belongs to Turkey. Heavily dependent on imported energy, Ankara has been among the hardest hit by the economic fallout from the Iran conflict. The country burned through nearly $50 billion in reserves last month just to keep its currency, the lira, stable — and its credit rating outlook has already been cut.

Economists at major banks including JPMorgan and Bank of America now expect Turkish interest rates to be raised by three full percentage points, pushing the benchmark rate back to a punishing 40%. That is not monetary policy — that is economic survival mode.

The Bottom Line

The week ahead is a stress test for the global economy on multiple fronts: a politically charged Fed confirmation battle in Washington, unresolved war in the Middle East, and a cascade of economic data that is unlikely to offer comfort. Markets are clinging to optimism about a peace deal — but the fundamentals suggest the situation remains fragile. One failed round of talks can move oil prices by double digits. That is the world investors are navigating right now.

.

Sources:

1. CNBC – Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation hearing: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/fed-chair-nominee-kevin-warsh-senate-confirmation-hearing.html
2. CNN Business – Warsh confirmation hearing scheduled: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/14/economy/new-disclosures-show-trumps-fed-nominee-has-extensive-financial-ties
3. The Hill – Warsh financial disclosures: https://thehill.com/business/5831040-warsh-hearing-senate-banking/
4. CNBC – Oil prices and Iran war, Strait of Hormuz: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/12/oil-prices-iran-war-strait-hormuz-blockade.html
5. CNBC – U.S.-Iran talks and oil markets: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/oil-price-us-iran-talks-hormuz-trump.html
6. CNBC – Oil prices, Hormuz disruption update: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/16/oil-prices-fall-as-hopes-for-us-iran-deal-outweigh-supply-disruption-concerns.html
7. Wikipedia – Economic impact of the 2026 Iran war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_2026_Iran_war
8. U.S. Senate Banking Committee – Official hearing notice: https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/04/14/2026/nomination-hearing

.