Paraguay Stands Firm: President Pena Heads to Taiwan as China Turns Up the Heat

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A Visit With a Message

Paraguayan President Santiago Pena is set to travel to Taiwan from May 7 to 10 for an official state visit. He will lead a high-level delegation of government officials and business representatives, sign bilateral cooperation agreements, and hold talks with Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te.

It will be Pena's second trip to the island as president – and a pointed signal to Beijing. Paraguay is Taiwan's only remaining diplomatic ally on the South American continent, and one of just 12 countries worldwide that still maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taipei.

Shared Values vs. Economic Pressure

Pena's government has consistently framed its relationship with Taiwan in terms of democratic values – not just trade. That position is increasingly under pressure.

China has been quietly and systematically courting Paraguay's political establishment. Since late 2023, more than a dozen Paraguayan lawmakers, journalists, and opposition figures have made trips to China – all as part of Beijing's broader strategy to shift the country's allegiances. Internal debate is growing over whether sticking with Taiwan is simply too costly economically.

The numbers are hard to ignore. Paraguay is a major exporter of beef and soybeans, but cannot sell directly to China because Beijing refuses to trade with countries that recognize Taipei. Products must be routed through third countries, reducing profits significantly. Meanwhile, Chinese imports into Paraguay reached a record $6 billion in 2025 – money flowing in one direction, with no formal trade relationship to show for it.

Beijing's Playbook: A Familiar Pattern

This is not China's first attempt to flip a Taiwan ally in the region. The pattern is well established: sustained diplomatic outreach, promises of trade access and infrastructure investment, followed by a formal switch in recognition.

Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and most recently Honduras have all gone through exactly this process. Each time, Beijing's leverage proved effective. Paraguay is now squarely in its sights.

Pena, whose presidential term runs until 2028, has so far publicly rejected these arguments. His administration has reaffirmed its commitment to Taipei – even as opposition voices grow louder at home.

Washington Watching Closely

The visit also takes place against a broader geopolitical backdrop. The Trump administration has been actively working to reassert U.S. influence across Latin America, with a particular focus on defense cooperation and access to critical minerals.

Paraguay's continued recognition of Taiwan aligns with Washington's interests in the region – and gives Asunción a degree of geopolitical backing as it navigates Beijing's pressure campaign.

What Comes Next

For now, Paraguay remains in Taiwan's corner. The state visit will produce tangible outcomes – signed agreements, trade commitments, and a visible show of solidarity between two democratic governments.

But the pressure from Beijing will not ease. With economic arguments mounting at home and China's regional track record of flipping allies, Pena's successors may face a far harder choice. For the moment, however, Paraguay's flag still flies alongside Taiwan's – a fact that carries weight far beyond South America.

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Sources:

1. Reuters – "Paraguay president to visit Taiwan in May amid China pressure" (April 30, 2026): https://www.reuters.com/world/china/paraguay-president-visit-taiwan-may-amid-china-pressure-2026-04-30/
2. Reuters – "How China is wooing Paraguay's political class away from longtime ally Taiwan" (March 2026): https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-is-wooing-paraguays-political-class-away-longtime-ally-taiwan-2026-03-14/
3. Radio Free Asia – Taiwan's Diplomatic Allies coverage: https://www.rfa.org/english/topics/taiwan-diplomacy
4. BBC – "Honduras cuts ties with Taiwan and switches to China" (March 2023): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64983261

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