300% Debt? How Hidden Debt Broke China’s Economic Model
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China’s debt problem may be far worse than Beijing officially admits. In this deep-dive analysis, we break down China’s hidden debt system — from LGFVs and local government borrowing to policy banks, pension liabilities, Central Huijin, and the collapse of the land-finance model. Why did local debt surpass central government debt? Why did Beijing’s “front door, back door” reforms fail? And could China’s real debt burden already exceed 170%–180% of GDP — or even far higher if the economy itself has been overstated? Let’s untangle the real size of China’s hidden debt problem.
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