Japan–Philippines Defense Pacts Critical to Stifling China Threat: Analysts
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Tokyo and Manila, the Philippines, have inked two pivotal security agreements to cement a United States-led “Asian NATO” structure that effectively counters Beijing and drastically raises the costs of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, experts say.
Alongside the signing, Japan pledged a $6 million Official Security Assistance grant to fund facilities for Japanese-donated rigid-hulled inflatable boats, a step aimed at strengthening the Philippines’ coastal defenses.
Extending Defense
Kei Koga, an associate professor at the School of Social Sciences at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, viewed the defense deals as a long-term step toward deepening cooperation rather than a military pact targeting any specific nation.“The ACSA does not effectively deter China, as the agreement is primarily intended to streamline administrative procedures for the use and provision of military equipment and supplies,“ Koga told The Epoch Times.
Arthur Wang Zhin-sheng, secretary general of the Asia-Pacific Elite Interchange Association in Taiwan, offered a different perspective, arguing the deal serves as a necessary response to Beijing’s persistent harassment and its attempts to breach the First Island Chain.
“With the previously signed Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) and the new ACSA, the Philippines can now host deployments of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces when necessary, effectively extending Japan’s defensive reach from the northern First Island Chain to the Philippines,” Wang told The Epoch Times.
‘Asian NATO’
The pacts drew an expected sharp rebuke from Beijing, which accused Japan of military expansion, according to remarks by Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun during a press briefing on Jan. 16.“The pact’s synchronized defense and intelligence sharing allow for rapid joint responses, placing immense pressure on Beijing to face a unified front,” Wang said. “This new interoperability enables Tokyo to back Manila in the South China Sea, forcing Beijing to contend with a two-front challenge instead of dealing with the Philippines in isolation.”
Wang noted that U.S. President Donald Trump is using alliances with Japan and South Korea and frequent drills with the Philippines to reinforce military and security deployments in the Indo-Pacific.
Deterring Taiwan Invasion
Just as Tokyo and Manila solidified their defense ties, a Chinese military drone briefly breached the airspace of Taiwan-controlled Dongsha Island—internationally known as Pratas Island—in the South China Sea on Jan. 17, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.Wang noted that the incident highlights the strategic significance of the agreement linking the Miyako and Bashi Straits, which serve as critical corridors for a potential invasion of Taiwan and now present a much higher risk for the Chinese Communist Party.
“This constitutes an anti-access or area denial strategy that effectively aligns Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, complicating any blockade attempts and ensuring Beijing would suffer a devastating blow if it persists in attacking,” Wang said.
The Chinese anti-access or area denial strategy is aimed at keeping U.S. forces away during a potential conflict over Taiwan—a self-governed democracy that Beijing has never ruled but has vowed to annex, potentially by force.
Wang added that extending the cooperation between Tokyo and Manila to counter gray-zone threats would “severely disrupt” China’s original invasion plans.
Hybrid Warfare
Despite the increasing defense posture and engagement across the Indo-Pacific, Koga predicted that China’s future aggressive behavior in the region is “unlikely to change significantly.”“Beijing would continue its existing policies, as it does not view the agreement as particularly urgent or consequential,” said Koga.
Wang described this persistence as relying on a triad of gray-zone tactics, economic coercion, and internal infiltration.
“China’s actions in the South China Sea throughout 2025 essentially amount to brinkmanship targeting remote reefs, while its economic coercion against Japan and the Philippines appears to have limited effect, as Tokyo remains resilient and Manila steadily reduces its reliance on Chinese markets,” Wang said.
However, Wang warned that democracies must remain hypervigilant against internal infiltration, as such polarization could paralyze domestic politics and create vulnerabilities for Beijing to exploit for territorial gain.
“Just as China infiltrated Manila via a local mayor and exploited internal divisions in Japan, Beijing will double down on such subversion as its gray zone and economic coercion face stiffer resistance,” Wang said.
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