FBI’s Visit Down Under to Ramp up Counter-Influence Efforts Against Beijing: Analysts
FBI’s Visit Down Under to Ramp up Counter-Influence Efforts Against Beijing: Analysts - ‘Its deterrent effect will not be apparent for some time to come but it is a step forward,' said Carl Schuster, an instructor at Hawaii Pacific University.
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The recent visit by FBI Director Kash Patel to Australia and New Zealand is aimed at melding counter-intelligence and influence efforts against Beijing, according to one defence expert. “One enduring axiom of Chinese strategic thinking is that a politically divided nation is a weaker one,” said Carl Schuster, an instructor in the Department of History at Hawaii Pacific University, in an interview with The Epoch Times.
“Mao [Zedong, former leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)] noted many years ago that political opinion drove democratic nations’ political will. So, modern China’s ‘Three Warfares’ doctrine (public opinion, media and lawfare) is intended to create those divisions.
“Kash Patel is trying to integrate the counter-intelligence and counter-influence elements of his allied and partner nation counterparts.”
Both countries and the United States are part of the Fives Eyes intelligence sharing grouping, which has been active since post-World War II.
Patel said in a video released by the U.S. Embassy that countering the CCP in the Pacific region is “one of the most important global issues” facing the two countries.
“Expanding the Wellington office demonstrates the strength and evolution of our partnership as we continue to work together to address our shared security objectives in the region,” he said.
The Chinese woman, an Australian permanent resident, is accused of spying on the Canberra branch of the Guan Yin Citta, a Buddhist association, on behalf of Beijing.
FBI Trying to Curtail Beijing’s Infiltration Efforts: Experts
Anders Corr, senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center said the FBI is likely taking steps to curtail CCP infiltration and influence efforts down under.“There is extensive CCP influence in New Zealand and Australia. The FBI’s presence there will certainly be noticed by the CCP, who will subsequently have to be more careful in their operations,” he told The Epoch Times.
Schuster largely concurred with the view.
“Strategically, it [the opening of the new FBI office] reflects America’s and its allies’ concerns about China’s expanding intelligence and influence threat. His [Patel’s] visit signals America’s belated awareness of that reality,” he said.
“Its deterrent effect will not be apparent for some time to come—but it is a step forward. Beijing now realizes its influence operations risk exposure but that does not mean it will reduce that effort in the short-term. The U.S. and its allies have a lot of catching up to do.”
Schuster pointed to the CCP’s efforts to create division and cultivate sympathisers.
“Unlike the Soviet threat, China has focused on creating relationships among key elements of those [Western] nations’ academic, art, business, media and political elites … The ultimate goal is to create divisions and factions within those nations’ body politic that prevent unified efforts that might be directed against China’s goals and interests.
NZ Concern Over Naming CCP Directly
Asked whether it was necessary to explicitly highlight “countering the CCP” as a goal of a new FBI office—given the sensitivities around trade—Corr believes democratic allies have little choice but to confront the issue of foreign interference, and the status quo was “no longer acceptable.”
“[U.S. President Donald] Trump is taking necessary leadership steps in this direction, which requires some application of incentives and disincentives.
“Nevertheless, a strong alliance of diverse sovereign democracies requires that the leader of that alliance engage in as much consultation, collaboration, and compromise with our allies while still getting the job done of joint defense against the CCP.”
Schuster, while acknowledging the discomfort with confronting the CCP, believes it’s critical business and political leaders recognise Beijing’s threat.
“It is understandable that they feel discomfort with any action or policy that appears directed at a government and contacts with whom they have enjoyed personal and professional benefits,” he said.
“However, the [New Zealand] government and the U.S. must show that ignoring China’s actions harm their country and their long-term personal interests.
“The key for democratic governments is to invest in exposing the truth and informing the public in a rational and credible way.”
Schuster said similar scenarios have played out in the past, to the detriment of Western leaders and societies.
“As was the case with Nazi Germany in the 1930s, those who were sympathetic to Germany’s early political and military moves later came to regret their decisions when Hitler interpreted their inaction as permission to conquer his neighbours.”
Rex Widerstrom and Naziya Alvi Rahman contributed to this report.
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