Iran Turmoil Grows as Trump Isolates Regime, Pressures Its Ally China
Udumbara
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By late December last year, Iran’s economy was on the verge of collapse. A steep drop in the value of the Iranian rial triggered widespread shortages and soaring prices, sparking nationwide protests that quickly escalated from economic grievances into open rebellion against the country’s theocratic regime.
Demonstrators not only burned symbols of the regime but also openly called for Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to step down. Social media footage has shown large crowds on the streets of Tehran and other cities.
The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) rights group said it had so far verified the deaths of 2,403 protesters and 147 regime-affiliated individuals. HRANA reported 18,137 arrests so far.
Trump Threatens Action
The ongoing protests come amid growing support from Washington for the protesters, with President Donald Trump on Jan. 14 posting on Truth Social: “Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price.”In the post, he announced the cancellation of all talks with Iranian officials and assured that help to protesters was on the way.
Tariffs Aim to Isolate Iran, Box in Beijing: Analysts
A day earlier, Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on all countries trading with Iran, effective immediately. Analysts say the move would sharply increase the cost of Chinese exports to the United States, pushing some tariffs as high as 73 percent.According to data from analytics firm Kpler, China received roughly 80 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports in 2025. Experts suggest Trump’s new tariffs serve a dual purpose—applying economic pressure on China while isolating Iran from outside support.
“China is by far Iran’s largest supporter,” Frank Xie, a professor at the University of South Carolina Aiken School of Business, told The Epoch Times. “The additional 25 percent [tariffs] could push the total tariff burden to around 70 percent, sharply escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing. If China continues backing Iran, it would deal an even heavier blow to its already slowing economy.”
Davy Jun Huang, a U.S.-based economist and former columnist for China’s state media CNTV, told The Epoch Times that since Washington is not targeting China directly this time, Beijing’s room to negotiate has been significantly narrowed. As a result, he said, China’s response has been rhetorically tough but restrained in practice.
Taiwanese financial analyst Huang Shih-Tsung said Trump’s decision to impose steep tariffs on countries trading with Iran delivers a particularly heavy blow to Beijing—especially as China enters its peak export season.
“The damage to China is extremely severe,” Huang told The Epoch Times.
He said Beijing may try to reduce its support for Tehran to limit economic losses, which severs outside support for Iran while simultaneously pressuring China.
A similar assessment came from Shen Ming-Shih, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, who told The Epoch Times that the tariff strategy serves dual objectives for Washington.
Shen made two points. First, it provides the United States with a strong rationale to impose higher tariffs on China, while making it unlikely that Beijing would retaliate by further restricting rare earth exports to the United States. Second, the measures help cut Iran off from external economic assistance, pushing the regime into deeper isolation, which could ultimately force Khamenei out of the country and trigger internal political change.
“For the United States, the optimal strategy would be facilitating a revolution in Iran,” Shen said.
Chung Chih-Tung, an assistant research fellow at the same institute, said Trump’s approach reflects a clear preference for economic pressure over military intervention.
“If Trump can use economic tools to avoid military force, that is obviously the best option,” Chung told The Epoch Times. “Beyond cutting off Iran’s economic lifelines, the strategy also deprives the Chinese Communist Party of access to discounted Iranian oil and favorable import arrangements.”
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Chung said Beijing’s low-profile reaction reflects damage control rather than confidence. On one hand, China appears to recognize that Iran’s political situation may be beyond saving, making additional investment a high-risk gamble. On the other hand, Beijing is keen to avoid a direct confrontation with Trump.
Authoritarian Regimes on Edge
Xie said the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on Jan. 3 has sent shockwaves through authoritarian regimes.“These regimes now realize their militaries lag far behind the United States,” he said. “Every leader understands that they could be next.”
Huang said that Beijing’s muted response to Maduro’s arrest—limited largely to boilerplate diplomatic statements—revealed its uncertainty.
“Beijing is under enormous pressure,” he said. “It knows that confronting the United States head-on is risky, but backing down is politically unacceptable. That leaves China stuck in an extremely awkward position.”
From Venezuela to Iran, Huang added, the pattern has become clear. China spent years using financial leverage to cultivate international partners, but once the United States intervenes, those chains of interest can quickly unravel.
It remains to be seen whether Washington’s economic pressure can unravel Beijing’s global partnerships without a single shot being fired.
