Chinese Leader Xi’s Military Purge Disrupts CCP’s Taiwan Invasion Plans: Analysts

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The purge of two senior Chinese military officials risks deepening mistrust between Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping and the armed forces while potentially delaying any invasion plans against Taiwan, analysts say.

Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for alleged grave breaches of discipline and law, Chinese state-run news agency Xinhua reported on Jan. 24.

Zhang holds the rank of vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and sits on the Political Bureau, or Politburo, of the CCP’s Central Committee, while Liu is a member of the CMC and heads the CMC Joint Staff Department.

“China has 28 general-rank positions, and 16 officers have now been arrested or disappeared, a turnover rate exceeding 57 percent that signals either rampant corruption or deep fractures in military relationships,” Su recently told The Epoch Times.

Su argued that the corruption charges are likely just a pretext for a purge, emphasizing that even if such irregularities exist, they are secondary concerns because “Xi’s insecurity is probably the primary problem.”

“Rumors suggest Zhang was purged for leaking secrets, but that’s likely speculation as this is fundamentally a political issue,” Su said.

Shu Hsiao-huang, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, noted that while the action may give Xi greater control over the armed forces, it could breed wider resentment among officers.

“I believe this will solidify his grip in the short term, but since Zhang and Liu were already senior officials and you cannot simply eliminate all their networks, subordinates may comply outwardly while harboring silent dissent toward Xi,” Shu recently told The Epoch Times.

Su predicted that such high-profile removals are unlikely to be the last.

“The Central Military Commission, Rocket Force, Army, Navy, and political cadres have all become ‘disaster zones,’” he said.

Taiwan is a self-governed democracy that has never been ruled by the CCP, which has vowed to annex the island by force if necessary.

“Moving up the timeline would require internal or external factors forcing his hand,” Shu said.

He added that the turmoil could actually force a significant delay in any invasion plan, as Xi’s deep suspicion of the ousted commanders’ entrenched power bases risks paralyzing the military’s decision-making apparatus.

“Xi’s purge stems more from internal than external pressures, making him cautious on major military calls since Zhang and Liu have no clear successors yet. Who then can execute Taiwan operations?” Shu said.

“Beijing previously diverted domestic unrest through the Korean and Sino–Vietnamese wars, but those were land conflicts where the PLA could flood the battlefield. A Taiwan invasion requires amphibious assault and fighting on terrain that favors defenders, presenting far greater risk,” Su said.

Su warned that without military certainty and veteran commanders, a failed attack would spell political catastrophe for Xi.

“Since China’s high-profile Sept. 3 military parade, we’ve seen tests of the sixth-generation J-36 and J-50 fighters, which still pose serious threats to American forces and regional countries, including Taiwan,” Shu said.

“The PLA’s institutional framework remains intact, as the purges impact execution efficiency rather than fundamental capability.”

In comparison with the U.S. military, Shu said the PLA operates under a fundamentally different structure and will maintain its three-phase modernization strategy aimed at displacing American military dominance, despite personnel upheaval.

“The three-phase strategy calls for mechanization by 2020, modernization by 2035, and a world-class military by 2050. That timeline hasn’t changed,” Shu said.

Su took a different view, noting that while the PLA’s hardware development continues, leadership gaps can’t be filled as easily. Cultivating senior commanders requires decades, and with more than 10 top officers now eliminated, the capability gap between Chinese and American forces has widened.

“The PLA’s morale has cratered after losing so many senior officers, and combat readiness has dropped while U.S. forces maintain their edge from years of actual warfare. Beijing is falling further behind,” Su said.

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