China’s Military Expansion, Support for Russia Entrench Structural Conflict With US: Analysts

Nov 29, 2025 - 10:53 Updated: Nov 29, 2025 - 03:45

China’s Military Expansion, Support for Russia Entrench Structural Conflict With US: Analysts

As Chinese leader Xi Jinping touts stable ties following his call with U.S. President Donald Trump, analysts warn Beijing’s Indo-Pacific aggression and supply chain weaponization expose ambitions fundamentally at odds with the United States and Western democracies.

“I just had a very good telephone call with President Xi…Our relationship with China is extremely strong!” Trump said in a Nov. 24 post on Truth Social, adding that he and Xi discussed many topics that day, including the Russia–Ukraine war, fentanyl, and agricultural products.

Chinese state media outlet CGTN confirmed the conversation but emphasized that Taiwan’s “return to China is an integral part of the post-war international order,” revealing a clear discrepancy between the two narratives.

Xi also stated that relations between Beijing and Washington have generally maintained “a steady and positive trajectory” since his meeting with Trump in South Korea on Oct. 30.

While Xi touted a stable relationship with Washington, Beijing’s actions suggest otherwise.

South China Sea Remains Flashpoint

The Philippine Navy stated on Nov. 25 that at least 30 Chinese vessels were swarming contested features in the West Philippine Sea as of Nov. 24, threatening Indo-Pacific stability and directly challenging U.S. interests in the region.

Tensions have further escalated between Beijing and Manila since September, when China authorized the creation of a national nature reserve at the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, a move that entrenches its presence in the area and deepens the ongoing maritime confrontation.

Raising concerns about Chinese military activities around Taiwan and in the South China Sea, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told an Oct. 29 joint press conference in Tokyo that China has conducted an “unprecedented military buildup” and “aggressive military actions” in the Indo-Pacific.

Wang Hung-jen, executive director at Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research, cautioned that although the South China Sea issue wasn’t explicitly mentioned in the Trump-Xi call, it remains a critical flashpoint, with Beijing’s artificial island-building and clashes with Manila posing an immediate risk to U.S. forces operating in the area.

“Basically, from the Obama and Biden administrations through Trump’s first and second terms, U.S. wariness toward China has always existed,” Wang told The Epoch Times. “Whether it’s China’s military spending growth or its behavior in the South China Sea, these all pose specific challenges to the United States.”

In this handout photo grabbed from video provided by the Philippine Coast Guard/Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (PCG/BFAR), a Chinese Coast Guard ship (L) uses water cannon and sideswipes a Philippine fisheries vessel on a research mission near one of three sandbars, collectively known as Sandy Cay, in the disputed South China Sea on May 21, 2025. PCG/BFAR via AP

The Taiwan Difference

Wang said that Xi utilized the call with Trump essentially for domestic propaganda purposes to characterize Taiwan—a self-governing democracy that Beijing claims and has not ruled out the use of force to bring under its control—as an internal matter, while Trump’s silence on the issue underscores a fundamental strategic conflict regarding Taiwan.

“From the U.S. perspective, they would consider Beijing’s position to be nothing more than China’s own interpretation, but Washington holds its own distinct reading of the Taiwan issue that differs from Beijing’s unilateral view,” Wang said.

In a similar vein, Tsai Jung-hsiang, a professor of political science at National Chung Cheng University in Taiwan, argued that phone calls cannot resolve structural conflicts driven by Beijing’s expanding ambitions, which remain incompatible with Washington’s role in maintaining order in the Indo-Pacific.

“Since Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te took office, China’s military drills have been continuous, showing that Beijing intends to use military coercion for invasion,” Tsai told The Epoch Times. “It’s impossible for the U.S. and China to reach consensus on Taiwan’s sovereignty through calls or negotiations because Trump will absolutely never accept China’s one-sided narrative.”

Ukraine War Divides

In addition to raising the Taiwan issue, China’s readout said the two leaders also discussed the war in Ukraine, with Xi calling for a “fair, lasting, and binding peace agreement at an early date.”

However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly accused China of supplying Russia with weapons and gunpowder, a concern echoed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Spectators, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedow and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, attend a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in central Moscow, May 9, 2025. Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool via Reuters

Tsai said the Trump–Xi call merely allowed both leaders to lay out their positions on the Ukraine war, with China’s real conduct pointing in a different direction from its stated support for peace—a divergence that stands in contrast to Trump’s push for a rapid end to the conflict and limited by what the brief call could realistically accomplish.

“Although China always appears neutral in its statements, its continued supply of battlefield-relevant equipment and materials to Russia, along with increased energy imports, shows that this neutrality is only a façade and that Beijing’s ongoing support has already drawn ire from Western governments,” Tsai said.

China has become one of Russia’s main oil buyers since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, and Moscow now expects deeper cooperation on crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Agreeing with Tsai’s view, Wang said Trump’s public statements have made clear he believes China is propping up Russia and that Beijing’s hollow calls for peace offer Washington little reason to expect Chinese support in ending the war.

“On Ukraine, the U.S. does not need China to deliver a solution as Washington is already engaging Moscow directly. Officials view Beijing’s statements as empty rhetoric—a stance Washington tolerates only as long as China refrains from undermining the push to end the conflict,” Wang said.

Supply Chain Coercion

Turning to the agricultural sector, Trump wrote in his post that both sides “have done a good, and very important” deal for U.S. farmers.

Supporting this optimism, Bessent confirmed on Nov. 25 that China is “right on schedule” with its soybean purchases, while officials signaled that a new multibillion-dollar aid package for American farmers will be announced soon.

Even with agricultural trade proceeding, an October article by the British think tank Chatham House argued that even successful deals on soybeans or rare earth mineral export controls offer “little scaffolding on which to shore up the structural foundations of this rivalry”

The report cautioned that instead of stabilizing ties, Beijing’s economic leverage tools should be viewed not just as specific countermeasures but as “a dress rehearsal for broader coercion.”

Wang noted that neither Beijing’s decision to delay the imposition of rare earth controls following the Busan meeting nor the silence on the issue during the Trump–Xi call addresses the core problem of supply chain weaponization.

“When the Dutch government froze control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned chipmaker, on national security concerns, China immediately blocked exports of finished Nexperia chips in retaliation, showing that Beijing’s current approach remains tactical and its strategy of turning supply chains into leverage remains unchanged,” Wang said.

Wang added that many countries once bet on globalization softening China politically through economic integration, but that gamble has failed with Beijing’s authoritarian regime—a reality democracies such as the United States must now reckon with.

“Washington is now focused on reducing such risks, which is why the U.S. has been signing rare earth agreements with Australia and Japan, aiming to sharply decrease dependence on China within the next year or two,” Wang stated.

Sharing a similar view, Tsai predicted that Beijing’s supply chain manipulation will prove effective only in the short term, serving as economic pressure but losing value once Washington secures alternative sources.

“Trump’s approach to economic ties and tariffs with China has a clear goal: preventing Beijing from converting trade benefits into military power. Thus, great-power competition between Washington and Beijing will never shift because of a few phone calls,” Tsai said.

Reuters contributed to this report.