China Challenges Japan in the Senkaku Islands and Raises the Risk of a US–China War
Udumbara
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China’s Coast Guard incursion into Japanese territory and PLA Daily attacks on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi mark a sharp escalation that could bring the United States closer to war over Taiwan.
Four armed Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered waters administered by Japan around the Senkaku Islands on Nov. 16, escalating already high tensions in the East China Sea. Beijing claims the Senkaku Islands, which it calls the Diaoyu Islands. Tokyo maintains full administrative control of the uninhabited islands and views the Chinese incursion as a violation of its territorial waters.
According to Japan’s Coast Guard, the four vessels crossed into the 12-mile zone around 10:15 a.m., were confronted by “a larger contingent of Japanese coast guard vessels,” and exited roughly two hours later. Beijing defended the move on Weibo, calling it “a rights protection cruise carried out by the China Coast Guard in accordance with the law.” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara condemned the intrusion as “a violation of international law” and “unacceptable,” and Tokyo filed a diplomatic protest.
The incursion came just days after Prime Minister Takaichi warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would constitute “an existential threat” that could justify Japanese military action.
China’s consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian, responded with a violent threat, posting on social media: “That filthy neck that barged in on its own—I’ve got no choice but to cut it off without a moment’s hesitation. Are you prepared for that?” The post was later deleted. China then summoned Japan’s ambassador for the first time in more than two years.
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Beijing’s propaganda arms accelerated the pressure campaign. Multiple commentaries in the PLA Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, attacked Takaichi for saying a Taiwan emergency could become a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. The newspaper claimed that her remarks violated the Chinese regime’s “one-China principle,” interfered in China’s internal affairs, and “grossly” challenged China’s core interests. It called her intent “extremely sinister,” labeled her remarks “extremely egregious,” and warned Japan to retract its position or “bear all the consequences.” PLA writers accused her of becoming the first Japanese leader since 1945 to declare that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency,” calling it a military threat against China.
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Xi Jinping has repeatedly vowed to unify Taiwan with the mainland “by force if necessary.” In response, U.S. Ambassador to Japan George Glass voiced support for Tokyo, stating that “the U.S.–Japan alliance is steadfast in its resolve to preserve peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” and that Washington “strongly oppose[s] any unilateral attempts to change the status quo of the region through force or coercion.”
The PLA Daily further argued that Japan is revising security documents, expanding offensive capabilities, and turning itself into a “war-capable state.” It warned that if Japan “dares to intervene militarily in cross-straits situation,” the CCP will deliver a “resolute, head-on blow” and exercise its right of self-defense.
Other commentaries repeated that intervention “risks the entire country becoming a battlefield” and accused Tokyo of having a “wolfish ambition to interfere in other countries’ internal affairs through military means.” One PLA-affiliated account warned Japan would “pay a heavy price,” and China’s Ministry of Defense separately said Japan would “suffer a crushing defeat.”
Under Japan’s 2015 security laws, a survival-threatening situation can only be declared when an attack on a country “in a close relationship with Japan” threatens Japan’s own survival. Takaichi argues that a Chinese blockade or military operation could endanger Japan’s sea lanes, threaten Japanese territory, or put U.S. forces stationed in Japan at risk. Her statement is a legal justification for Japan to defend itself. It is not a commitment to defend Taiwan.
The shift still matters for the United States. If Japan activates the Self-Defense Forces, U.S. forces on Japanese territory are immediately part of the confrontation, and any Chinese retaliation could trigger the U.S.–Japan treaty. Japan’s southern islands lie only about 68 miles from Taiwan, its vital sea lanes run through the contested zone, and U.S. forces in Okinawa sit inside the likely battlespace. The PLA Daily’s warning that Japan “risks the entire country becoming a battlefield” clearly includes American installations.
China’s Coast Guard incursion also appears designed to test resolve, as the ships carried deck-mounted machine guns, signaling readiness to escalate. The CCP is demonstrating it can pressure Japan militarily, diplomatically, and economically. After the diplomatic clash, Beijing warned its citizens to avoid Japan, and Chinese airlines offered free refunds and changes—a preview of broader economic coercion.
The Trump administration has underscored its response framework. During a CBS “60 Minutes” interview, President Donald Trump said Xi promised not to take military action against Taiwan “because they know the consequences,” though he did not specify what the U.S. response would be.
