Muted Response Expected From ‘Axis of Evil’ Countries as Australia Expels Iran Diplomat
Udumbara
Beijing and Moscow are expected to tread carefully in their reaction to Australia’s expulsion of Iran’s ambassador, with analysts noting both regimes are balancing ties in the Middle East and have little interest inflaming tensions.
On Aug. 26, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the expulsion of Iran’s Ambassador Ahmad Sadeghi and suspended Australia’s embassy operations in Tehran, after spy agencies confirmed Iran was the chief organiser behind two anti-Semitic arson attacks.
The Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) said it had gathered “credible intelligence” showing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directed the Oct. 20, 2024 arson incident at Lewis Continental Kitchen in Sydney, and the Dec. 6, 2024 firebombing of the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne.
The Albanese government will further list the IRGC as a terrorist organisation, while Australians in Iran are being urged to leave the country now.
In response, Iran rebuked Albanese’s decision, describing Australia’s accusations as politically motivated and punishment for “the Australian people’s support for Palestine.”
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Beijing and Moscow Walking a Tightrope
Regarding the likely response from the new “axis of evil” or “CRINK” countries, Carl Schuster, an instructor at the Department of History of Hawaii Pacific University, says it will be low-key.
“China and Russia are trying to walk a tight rope in the Middle East, hoping to maintain both Iranian and Israeli goodwill, so Beijing will at most issue a statement calling for countries to maintain good relations,” he told The Epoch Times.
“Russia may follow suit but is more likely to say nothing at all.
“North Korea’s response is difficult to judge. North Korea will base its response on whether it sees Australia doing something inimical to North Korea’s desires or interests. If Australia is not participating in any drills on the Korean Peninsula, then I don’t expected North Korea to say or do anything at all.”
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Joseph Siracusa, an adjunct professor of international security at Curtin University, largely concurred with this view.
“I don’t think Russia or China is going to follow or care as much about the Iranian lead,” he told The Epoch Times. “Russia and China use Iran to the extent that they need to use them.”
He noted the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tries to “play a very straight hand on this kind of thing.”
“They’ve been talking for the last 30 years about not interfering in the affairs of other countries,” he said. “The idea of setting a synagogue on fire and harassing people under the guise of anti-Semitism? That goes nowhere.”
The professor said the Iranian regime’s act was a “rogue effort to stir troubles in Australia.”
“People see that not only as offensive, but it’s stupid. It goes nowhere, and it'd be easy to trace, so I don’t think the Chinese or the Russians, or anybody else is going to get behind Iran on this.”
As of now, China and Russia have not issued any official statements or public positions regarding Australia’s expulsion of the Iranian ambassador.
However, both have storied histories of their own foreign interference activities in Australia. Russia was revealed to be responsible for a “hive“ of spies in the country, while CCP sympathisers have recently been exposed for routinely backing Beijing’s overseas efforts to suppress freedom of belief.
Meanwhile, Schuster said Australia’s move will send a strong message.
“It may influence other countries that have diplomatic relations with Iran, since anti-Semitic propaganda is a key component of Iranian diplomacy and has been since around 1981,” he said.
“Australia’s move sends a strong signal to Iran and others that it will not tolerate anti-Semitism in any form, and that it finds advocating anti-Semitism to be unacceptable.”
Concerns About Diplomatic Services
Professor Siracusa also cautioned about the impact on diplomatic services in the Middle East.
“It exposes Australians in the Middle East to very severe threats,” he said, concerned Australians in the region could be at risk of arbitrary arrests.
“Australian government has told people to go home. Well, [it] might be too late for some. A lot of Australian Iranians may not want to do that. They may have family there; they may have business interests there; they may have humanitarian or religious interests there, etc.”
“So a decision like this not only sends an important signal to the Australian people that they’re taking Iran very seriously, but it also sends an important message to the Middle East that Australian Iranians are on their own now, they are greatly exposed.”
The professor said Iran was a “nation of 90 million people with a fairly strong military.”
“The Iranians like to talk with their fist, so there will be some kind of retaliation,” said Siracusa.
Naziya Alvi Rahman contributed to this report.
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