Trade Rep Says Trump May Fast-Track 100 Percent Tariff If China Escalates Rare Earth Fight

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Oct 15, 2025 - 09:55 Updated: Oct 15, 2025 - 03:04
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Trade Rep Says Trump May Fast-Track 100 Percent Tariff If China Escalates Rare Earth Fight

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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said President Donald Trump may still follow through with a threatened new 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods on Nov. 1—or even sooner—depending on Beijing’s next move in an escalating trade dispute over rare earth mineral supplies.

“A lot depends on what the Chinese do,” Greer told CNBC in an Oct. 14 interview. “They are the ones who have chosen to make this major escalation.”

Greer’s remarks came amid elevated tensions after China expanded export controls on Oct. 9, adding five new rare earth elements and dozens of processing technologies to its restricted list. The move triggered alarm in Washington, where officials view Chinese control over the supply of critical minerals as a strategic vulnerability.

Trump responded by accusing Beijing of “sinister and hostile” actions. He threatened a 100 percent tariff while saying he saw “no reason” to proceed with a planned meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Seoul, South Korea, later this month.
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Initially, tensions appeared to cool. On Oct. 13, Greer suggested that Chinese officials were signaling a willingness to reconsider the export curbs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, on the same day, said the rare earth dispute was showing signs of de-escalation and that the Trump–Xi meeting appeared back on track. Chinese spokespeople also said the restrictions were not an outright ban and that Beijing remained open to dialogue.
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But by Oct. 14, rhetoric hardened again on both sides. China’s commerce ministry accused Washington of intimidation tactics over the tariff threat, while Bessent described Beijing’s actions around rare earth exports as an effort to destabilize global markets.
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“Maybe there is some Leninist business model where hurting your customers is a good idea, but they are the largest supplier to the world,” Bessent told The Financial Times. “If they want to slow down the global economy, they will be hurt the most.”

Greer echoed that warning in his CNBC appearance, saying China must not be allowed to wield veto power over strategic materials.

“We can’t have a situation where the Chinese keep this regime in place where they want to have veto power over the world’s high-tech supply chains,” he said, adding that whether Trump proceeds with 100 percent tariffs depends on what China does.

Greer confirmed that Trump and Xi remain scheduled to meet but emphasized that those plans could change if Beijing presses ahead with export restrictions.

“Whether it will go through or not, I don’t want to precommit either ourselves or the Chinese,” he said. “But I think it makes sense for people to talk when they can.”

Despite the sharp rhetoric, Greer said communications remain open. Senior U.S. and Chinese officials held staff-level talks on the rare earth issue in Washington as recently as Monday, he said.

“We think we’ll be able to work through it,” Greer said, praising Trump’s deal-making approach and saying Beijing appeared to recognize it had “overstepped.”

Rare earth minerals are essential for high-strength magnets used in U.S. weapons systems, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and renewable energy technologies. China controls around 60 percent of global mining and more than 90 percent of refining capacity, with the United States reliant on China for roughly 70 percent of its rare earth imports.

China’s Oct. 9 move tightened export permit requirements not only on rare earth elements but also on alloys, magnets, and battery components that contain trace Chinese-origin minerals. Chinese state media commentators have long called for weaponizing rare earths in response to U.S. export controls on advanced chips.

The rare earth battle is unfolding alongside broader strategic tensions. Washington has curbed China’s access to advanced chips and chipmaking tools—partly in response to Beijing’s increasingly aggressive posture in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan.

U.S. officials have said that cutting-edge U.S. semiconductors should not feed China’s military modernization or bolster systems that could be used against American forces or allies.

Beijing has curbed U.S. soybean purchases and imposed reciprocal port fees, while signaling that it could tighten other commodity flows if tensions escalate.

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