Is China the Achilles’ Heel of the US–Israel Defense Pact?
Udumbara
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Three’s a Crowd
The U.S.–Israel defense relationship is among America’s closest and most strategically important alliances. Built over decades around shared geopolitical interests, democratic values, and robust military cooperation, this partnership has resulted in extensive defense collaboration. Co-development of advanced weapons systems is common between the two nations, as is intelligence sharing on shared threats.Deepening Sino–Israeli Ties: A Strategic Puzzle
Over the past decade, Israel and China have significantly expanded economic cooperation. China is a major market for Israeli technology, particularly in sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), telecommunications, and semiconductors. As a result, Beijing has cultivated diplomatic ties with greater impact, gathering new partners in the Middle East.For U.S. military planners, these developments present a dilemma. On one hand, Israel is a close ally and essential partner in maintaining regional stability. On the other hand, Beijing’s enormous technological ambitions raise concerns about the security implications of collaboration between Israel and China, especially in defense-adjacent sectors.
Research collaborations or technology partnerships with Israeli defense companies or research institutes will enable Chinese actors to gain military-relevant data under the guise of civilian or commercial cooperation. This kind of “dual channel” access complicates traditional counter-espionage measures. Activities that appear benign can mask intent to siphon information that ultimately contributes to China’s military modernization.
Intellectual Property Theft, Technological Competition
Beyond overt security breaches, intellectual property (IP) theft is another serious risk. China has been widely engaged in IP theft from U.S. agencies and private industry in advanced technologies for decades. The total annual cost of IP theft to the United States could reach as much as $600 billion, with China identified as the largest single source of such activity, and it involves sectors such as semiconductors, quantum computing, and AI.
Israel’s globally renowned technology sector IP, especially in defense and cybersecurity, isn’t immune to Chinese theft. What’s more, Israel’s innovation ecosystem routinely collaborates with U.S. defense contractors. They jointly develop components for integrated U.S.–Israeli weapons systems and push the frontier in fields that have direct military utility.
Should Chinese entities gain access to Israeli IP through investment, joint ventures, licensing agreements, or theft, it could accelerate Beijing’s ability to close the technological gap with the United States.
The Blurry Line of Dual-Use Technology Transfers
A particularly thorny issue is the transfer of dual-use technologies, wherein they have both civilian and military applications. Many innovations in sectors like AI, robotics, semiconductor design, and satellite technologies are inherently dual-use. Furthermore, Israel’s tech industry produces such innovations at scale.The challenge lies in defining where civilian exchange ends and strategic transfer begins. American export control legal structures, such as the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, regulate the movement of certain defense-related technologies. But when a technology is marketed as “civilian” yet can quickly be repurposed for military applications, enforcement becomes difficult.
As one may expect, U.S. policymakers have increasingly urged their Israeli counterparts to tighten restrictions on certain types of technology transfers to China. Too often, there have been instances in which Washington has raised formal objections to proposed Israeli sales or technology investments involving Chinese partners.
Balancing Act: Sovereignty, Security, Strategic Alignment
At its core, friction over China’s economic and technological influence poses a serious challenge for Israel, as it seeks to maintain its sovereign foreign policy and economic interests while remaining a dependable partner to the United States.On the flip side, how can the United States support its ally without forcing a binary choice that undermines Israel’s broader economic objectives?
Recent developments suggest steps have been taken toward more alignment in these areas. Israel has curtailed or blocked certain Chinese investments in strategic infrastructure and enacted stricter export controls and intelligence safeguards in key sectors.
Still, these measures are often reactive rather than proactive, and the rapid pace of technological evolution means new vulnerabilities constantly emerge.
What’s the U.S. response?
China Dependency Undermines Security of Both Nations
The threat posed by the Chinese regime isn’t necessarily existential, but it can’t be ruled out. The U.S.–Israel alliance has endured decades of strategic shifts, and both nations have strong reasons to maintain robust cooperation on defense and intelligence.However, China’s growing technological prowess and strategic ambitions undoubtedly present real challenges, especially as it challenges the U.S. military and economic dominance on a global scale, including American capabilities for defending Israel. The reality of security breaches, intellectual property theft, and the transfer of dual-use technologies, along with the risks that come with them, isn’t going away soon.
The problem is that both the United States and Israel are dependent upon Beijing for both similar and different reasons, so decoupling from China won’t happen overnight, if at all.
How Washington and Jerusalem navigate these challenges in the coming years will shape not only the future of their bilateral defense relationship but also broader patterns of global power in the 21st century.
