Taiwan Drills for the Unthinkable: What Happens If China Tries to Choke Off the Island?

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A Scenario That Hits Close to Home

On Thursday morning, senior Taiwanese officials gathered for what looked like a routine committee meeting. But the agenda was anything but routine. Led by National Security Council Deputy Secretary-General Lii Wen, the group walked through a detailed simulation: China's Coast Guard announces that all ships entering or leaving Taiwanese ports must first register through a Chinese government trade portal — essentially asking foreign and domestic vessels to seek Beijing's permission to access Taiwan.

The scenario then escalated. Chinese vessels begin stopping and inspecting ships. Then boarding them. Then seizing them outright.

The exercise was presented to President Lai Ching-te's Whole-of-Society Defence Resilience Committee — a body set up to coordinate civilian and military responses to national security threats.

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Taiwan's Simulated Counterstrike

In the drill, Taiwan did not stand aside. Its own Coast Guard deployed to push back against Chinese vessels at sea. The military raised its combat readiness. Government ministries launched a coordinated public communications effort, arguing that China's boarding and inspection operations violate international law and infringe on freedom of navigation — rights protected under international maritime conventions.

The response was deliberately multi-layered: legal, diplomatic, military, and public. Taiwan's message in the simulation was clear: any attempt to control its ports would be treated as a hostile act, not a routine law enforcement matter.

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This Is No Theoretical Exercise

The timing of Thursday's drill is not a coincidence. Earlier this month, China's Coast Guard conducted what Beijing called a "special maritime traffic law-enforcement operation" off Taiwan's eastern coast — waters that serve as a critical alternative shipping lane if the Taiwan Strait were ever closed.

China said the operation was a response to Japan and the Philippines announcing formal talks on their maritime boundaries — an area Beijing claims as its own waters near Taiwan.

Taiwan rejected the patrol as illegal. And it was not alone. The de facto British, French, and German embassies in Taipei issued a rare joint statement calling the Chinese activity concerning, warning that such actions threaten regional stability and freedom of navigation for international shipping. The United States raised similar concerns.

The three European governments said it is fundamental that "all navigational rights and freedoms and the safety of seafarers and vessels are guaranteed and respected."

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Beijing Insists It Has Every Right

China was not silent. A Chinese Coast Guard spokesperson defended the patrols as lawful, legitimate, and necessary — calling them a just action to safeguard national sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.

Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang echoed this position on Thursday, saying the patrols in the relevant waters were a "just action" to protect what Beijing considers its own territorial interests.

President Lai pushed back directly. Speaking at the opening of the resilience committee meeting, he said China's actions — dressed up as law enforcement — actually undermine the security and stability of the entire region. "Taiwan's efforts to strengthen its self-defence capabilities, maintain the peaceful and stable status quo, and safeguard its democratic and free way of life are absolutely not provocations," he said.

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A Pattern of Escalation

Today's drill fits into a broader and accelerating pattern. In late December 2025, China's military conducted its "Justice Mission 2025" exercises — the largest blockade rehearsal to date, bringing together the PLA Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and Coast Guard to practice cutting off Taiwan's access to the sea, targeting key ports, and deterring external intervention.

The exercises involved more than 89 aircraft and at least 14 warships, covering a wider area than any drill conducted since 2022.

For Taiwan, the concern is straightforward: any increase in Chinese enforcement activities could place additional pressure on commercial shipping and challenge Taiwan's ability to exercise control over nearby waters. The island relies almost entirely on imports for its energy supply, making open sea lanes a matter of survival, not just commerce.

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What Comes Next

Taiwan is stepping up its own preparedness in response. Authorities have outlined plans to maintain three maritime corridors — toward the Philippines, Japan, and the broader Pacific — that could keep supplies flowing even under blockade conditions. Joint exercises with the U.S., Japanese, and Philippine coast guards are deepening.

The question is no longer whether China is rehearsing a blockade. The question is how far Beijing is willing to go — and how quickly the rest of the world would respond if it did.

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Sources

1. Reuters – Taiwan simulates countering a Chinese maritime blockade in tabletop drill (June 25, 2026): https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-simulates-countering-chinese-maritime-blockade-tabletop-drill-2026-06-25/
2. Defense News – U.S., UK, France, Germany raise alarm about Chinese patrols off eastern Taiwan (June 24, 2026): https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2026/06/24/us-uk-france-germany-raise-alarm-about-chinese-patrols-off-eastern-taiwan/
3. Baird Maritime – European powers say Chinese actions off Taiwan risk security (June 25, 2026): https://www.bairdmaritime.com/amp/story/security/european-powers-say-chinese-actions-off-taiwan-risk-security
4. The Diplomat – China's Taiwan Drills Are Crossing a New Line (January 3, 2026): https://thediplomat.com/2026/01/chinas-taiwan-drills-are-crossing-a-new-line/
5. The Spokesman-Review / Bloomberg – Taiwan plans drills to break potential Chinese energy blockade (April 12, 2026): https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/apr/12/taiwan-plans-drills-to-break-potential-chinese-ene/
6. Modern Diplomacy – China and Taiwan Clash Over Coast Guard Patrols in Waters East of Taiwan (June 2026): https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/06/10/china-and-taiwan-clash-over-coast-guard-patrols-in-waters-east-of-taiwan/

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