Historic U.S. Arms Deal to Revolutionize Taiwan’s Defense, Upset PLA Strategy: Analysts

Dec 25, 2025 - 10:52 Updated: Dec 24, 2025 - 18:53

Historic U.S. Arms Deal to Revolutionize Taiwan’s Defense, Upset PLA Strategy: Analysts

A record U.S. arms sale to Taiwan is serving as a practical deterrent against Chinese aggression, constraining Beijing to performative posturing in the short term due to its severe economic slowdown, experts say.

The Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Dec. 18 that it received official notification from the United States confirming an $11.1 billion arms package, marking the largest single weapons sale ever proposed for the island.

The deal encompasses eight distinct systems, including M109A7 self-propelled howitzers, high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS), antiarmor unmanned aerial vehicles, and additional Javelin and wire-guided missiles.

The list also features the Taiwan Tactical Network (TTN) and Team Awareness Kit (TAK), spare parts for AH-1W helicopters, and Harpoon missile repair follow-on support.

Pending congressional approval, the historic deal would dwarf the US$8.4 billion in total arms sales authorized under former President Joe Biden’s administration.

The sale aligns with “U.S. national, economic, and security interests by supporting the recipient’s continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability,” the U.S. State Department said in a statement.

Thwarting PLA Ambitions

Richard Chou Yu-ping, a member of the Evaluation Center Committee at Taiwan’s National Defense Industrial Development Foundation, described the pending sale as a “practical and effective deterrent” against the Chinese regime’s aggression toward Taiwan—a self-governing democracy that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claims as its own and has not ruled out taking by force.

“This arms purchase will bolster Taiwan’s long-range rocket capabilities and significantly impact the PLA’s preparations before any invasion attempt. Additionally, the M109A7 is current U.S. military equipment, offering self-propelled howitzer capabilities far superior to the weapons currently fielded by Taiwan’s armed forces,” Chou told The Epoch Times, referring to the People’s Liberation Army.

Chou highlighted the operational synergy of specific systems, particularly the TTN, TAK, and Javelin missiles, in enhancing battlefield awareness and precision strike capabilities.

Armed military vehicles patrol outside the Songshan Airport in Taipei, Taiwan, on Oct. 14, 2024. Daniel Ceng/AFP via Getty Images

“The TTN and TAK systems provide us with critical information to launch countermeasures against PLA landings or approaching naval fleets. Meanwhile, Javelin missiles can target heavy weaponry as PLA forces attempt to land, meaning this procurement significantly bolsters Taiwan’s defense against military threats,” Chou said.

Shu Hsiao-huang, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, characterized the army’s legacy force posture as ill-suited for modern threats, arguing this package fundamentally transforms combat readiness, particularly including the TTN and TAK.

“This signals to the PLA that even if they achieve air and naval superiority, Taiwan can still deliver a crushing blow to their landing forces,” Shu told The Epoch Times.

Shu hailed the deal as a massive leap forward, claiming it advances the army’s capabilities by “perhaps more than 30 or 40 years” while paving the way for the retirement of aging systems.

“If equipment remains unchanged, then combat doctrine and training also remain outdated, posing a major challenge for the army. This procurement allows the Taiwanese military to adopt a new mindset regarding operations and deployment,” Shu said.

Menacing the First Island Chain

In a press briefing on Dec. 19, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson condemned the arms package, claiming the sale seriously undermines Beijing’s “sovereignty and security interests.”

Rejecting Beijing’s claims, Su Tzu-yun, an assistant professor at Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies in Taipei, countered that it is the communist regime that is actively and ceaselessly eroding sovereignty throughout the Indo-Pacific and specifically Taiwan—a threat underscored by Pentagon warnings that China aims to be ready to seize the island by 2027.

“China is undergoing a strategic adjustment to transform from a land power into a sea power, and Taiwan sits at the most critical position in this development strategy.

“Possessing Taiwan would be akin to possessing Hawaii, allowing China to project power into the Pacific,” Su told The Epoch Times.

In a similar vein, Shu noted that although China’s strategic forces still lag behind the United States, Beijing is drawing on lessons from the Russia–Ukraine war to accelerate the deployment of next-generation munitions and replicate U.S. combat capabilities.

“Developments such as the sixth-generation Chengdu J-36 fighter and the stealth CH-7 drone pose significant challenges to air defense networks in the First Island Chain, covering Taiwan, Japan, and nearby U.S. bases.

“Additionally, China’s fielding of the new land-based DF-61 intercontinental ballistic missile further cements its long-range strategic strike capabilities,” Shu said.

Chou pointed out that Beijing aims to project immense intimidation across the region through improved missile precision, new aircraft carriers, and multi-pronged strategies—maneuvers designed to exhaust defenders through irregular, multi-directional harassment.

“China’s military power can already extend to the First Island Chain and is currently expanding toward the Second Island Chain, which is a major concern for the United States. Therefore, it is critically important for nations within the First Island Chain to coordinate effectively with U.S. forces to generate a protective network,” Chou stated.

The second chain consists of the islands of Japan expanding out to Guam and the islands of Micronesia.

Economic Slump Curbs Retaliation

Su predicted that Beijing, following its standard playbook, is likely to launch targeted retaliatory measures against Taiwan by weaponizing specific trade flows and staging military exercises to sow instability within Taiwanese society.

“China may impose new economic sanctions, such as banning specific Taiwanese agricultural imports, or use the sale as a pretext to conduct drills around the Taiwan Strait. That said, the likelihood of large-scale war games on the scale of [what followed] then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit remains relatively low,” Su said.

Beyond traditional drills, Shu cautioned that Beijing would likely intensify its use of gray zone tactics—coercive actions below the threshold of war—to pressure Taiwan and frame U.S. arms sales as a source of danger.

“China’s gray-zone tactics are becoming increasingly diverse. These range from coast guard vessels harassing Taiwan’s outer islands and sabotaging undersea cables to the persistent deployment of research vessels for intelligence gathering in surrounding waters. We can expect these insidious activities to continue unabated,” Shu said.

Nevertheless, Chou noted that Beijing’s capacity for broad retaliation is constrained by its own severe economic slowdown, leaving the regime with fewer economic cards to play, and making it likely to refrain from sweeping sanctions and rely instead on performative saber-rattling.

“Facing limited leverage, Beijing has no choice but to show off new fighter jets or weapons—a form of posturing designed to manufacture fear in Taiwan and the U.S. To withstand this coercion, the priority for Taiwan is to rapidly strengthen its own defensive capabilities, combining military hardware with psychological resilience,” Chou said.