A Decade After Winning Their Case, Philippine Fishermen Say China Has Pushed Them Out of Scarborough Shoal

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A Legal Win That Didn't Change Life at Sea

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that China's sweeping claims over the South China Sea, including its restrictions on fishing at Scarborough Shoal, had no basis in international law. For fishermen in Masinloc, a coastal town in Zambales province, the verdict felt like the return of a livelihood.

Ten years later, that hope has faded. Filipino fishermen say Chinese coast guard and militia vessels have only tightened their grip on the shoal since the ruling, effectively keeping local boats away from waters they once shared for generations.

Rony Drio, 59, has not fished near the shoal since 2024. Henrilito Empoc, 47, stopped going in 2022. Both now fish closer to shore, and Empoc has taken a side job driving a motorized taxi to make ends meet.

Harassment at Sea: Water Cannons and Cut Anchor Lines

Empoc recalls the optimism after the 2016 ruling: the hope of finally being able to fish freely again. That hope did not last. He says he has personally witnessed Chinese vessels fire water cannons at Filipino fishing boats, and Chinese personnel cut the anchor lines of Filipino boats to force them to leave.

Drio described being ordered by Chinese personnel to leave the shoal's lagoon. Because the water there was too shallow for his boat, he and a fellow fisherman had to carry the vessel across sharp coral by hand, injuring their feet in the process.

China's embassy in Manila did not respond to a request for comment on these accounts. Beijing has consistently rejected the 2016 tribunal ruling and maintains that it holds what it calls "indisputable sovereignty" over the shoal, which it calls Huangyan Dao.

Background: A Decade of Rising Tension

Scarborough Shoal, known in the Philippines as Bajo de Masinloc, has been under China's de facto control since a standoff in 2012. The tribunal's 2016 decision did not rule on which country holds sovereignty over the shoal — it addressed fishing rights and the legality of China's broader maritime claims.

Confrontations at the shoal have continued to escalate. Earlier in 2026, China installed a floating barrier at the lagoon's entrance, which it later removed following Philippine protests. According to satellite-tracking data from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Chinese coast guard patrols near Scarborough have surged dramatically in 2026, nearly matching the entire patrol volume recorded for 2025 within just the first six months of the year.

Beijing has also proposed designating the shoal a nature reserve — a move Manila has publicly rejected as a pretext for permanent occupation. In June 2026, four Chinese warships reportedly confronted a Philippine Navy frigate near the shoal in a rare direct naval stand-off, according to Philippine broadcaster GMA Network.

Tensions have not been limited to Scarborough. In June 2024, a Filipino navy sailor lost a finger during a violent encounter with the Chinese coast guard near Second Thomas Shoal, another contested feature further south where Manila maintains a grounded warship as an outpost.

Outlook: Diplomatic Gains, Local Losses

Despite the hardship faced by fishing communities, Philippine officials argue that the tribunal ruling has strengthened the country's position on the international stage. It has underpinned Manila's so-called "transparency initiative" of publicizing confrontations at sea, and helped deepen defense cooperation with the United States, Japan and Australia — allies that share concerns about Beijing's growing assertiveness in the region.

Jay Batongbacal, director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the University of the Philippines, argues that China's own actions have been counterproductive for Beijing, since they have driven the Philippines closer to a broader circle of security partners.

For fishermen like Drio and Empoc, however, these diplomatic gains offer little comfort. As Drio put it, winning the legal case in 2016 does not feel like a victory when he still cannot safely fish the waters his family has relied on for generations.

The episode illustrates a broader pattern that has drawn criticism from governments and human rights observers alike: Beijing's willingness to use coercive tactics against smaller neighbors even after losing an international legal challenge, a stance consistent with the Chinese Communist Party's approach to disputed territory across the region. By contrast, the current U.S. administration under President Trump has continued to back joint military exercises and freedom-of-navigation patrols with Manila, reinforcing the Philippines' position as tensions in the South China Sea continue to rise.

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SOURCES

1. Reuters – "A decade after historic ruling, Philippine fishermen say driven away from disputed shoal by China" (July 10, 2026): https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/decade-after-historic-ruling-philippine-fishermen-say-driven-away-disputed-shoal-2026-07-10/
2. South China Morning Post – "China and Philippines have a rare naval stand-off near disputed Scarborough Shoal": https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3358063/china-and-philippines-have-rare-naval-stand-near-disputed-scarborough-shoal
3. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS) – "Occupational Risk? Chinese Presence Surges at Scarborough Shoal": https://amti.csis.org/occupational-risk-chinese-presence-surges-at-scarborough-shoal/

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