CCP State Media Claims Success as Analysts Highlight Clear Signs of Economic Decline
Udumbara
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The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee convened in Beijing on Oct. 20 behind closed doors, expecting to last four days, with state media stating the meeting focuses on drafting the next five-year development plan, known as the “15th Five-Year Plan.”
State Media Claims Economic Progress
On Oct. 20, the CCP’s propaganda outlet Xinhua News Agency released a series of commentaries claiming China’s economic development had achieved “remarkable progress” under CCP leadership during the current 14th Five-Year Plan.Economists and industry insiders, however, say these claims sharply contradict reality.
Xu Zhen, a capital market specialist with two decades of experience in China’s financial sector, told The Epoch Times that the 14th Five-Year Plan era has actually been defined by economic collapse.
“The bursting of the real estate bubble—symbolized by Evergrande’s bankruptcy—extinguished one of the main engines of China’s growth,” he said. “Exports have stalled due to the U.S.–China trade war and shrinking external demand. After the pandemic, consumers have lost confidence and spending power.”
Xu added that the combined effects of declining exports, weak consumption, and rising debt have created “a tidal wave of bankruptcies and unemployment,” leaving households, companies, and local governments all heavily indebted. This debt burden has crippled China’s industrialized sectors, from housing to healthcare and education.
China current affairs commentator Wang He offered a similar assessment. “During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the CCP faced major setbacks,” he said. “Its draconian pandemic lockdowns devastated the economy, and by 2023, the middle class had largely collapsed, and they were the main driver of consumption.”
Wang also noted that Beijing’s aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy alienated the West, isolating China in the global economy. He said he believes that China’s economy is currently at its worst since the era of “reform and opening up,” which started in the late 1970s after former CCP dictator Mao Zedong’s death.
Official Claims Clash With Hard Data
Despite Beijing’s glowing rhetoric, official statistics show clear signs of decline.Yet, Xinhua’s Oct. 20 editorial claimed that the CCP’s five-year plans had contributed to “miracles of rapid economic growth and long-term social stability.”
Analysts dispute these assertions.
“These ‘miracles’ simply don’t exist,” Wang said. “Many expect China’s [true] growth rate to drop to 3 percent or less. The country’s potential has been exhausted by years of party mismanagement.”
Internal Infighting Overshadows Policy Plans
Experts believe that the new five-year plan, the main agenda item at this week’s plenary, will likely be little more than a formality. The real focus is the CCP’s worsening internal conflict.Analysts Offer a Solution
Xinhua’s commentary states that the CCP is the key to China’s success and prosperity. Analysts agree, but not in the way Beijing intends.“The Fourth Plenum has no effective solutions,” Wang said. “Even if it introduces new measures, they won’t be implemented properly. The party has become the root cause of all of China’s problems. The only real solution is to dismantle it.”
Xu echoed that view, blaming China’s centralized, one-party system for suffocating innovation and growth.
“The party insists on controlling everything, leaving nothing outside its reach,” he said. “When it takes control, everything suffocates. When it loosens control, chaos follows. Its obsession with mobilizing the nation to ‘do big things’ and compete with the United States has pushed China into a painful deflationary spiral.”
“During the 15th Five-Year Plan, the economy will likely decline even faster, and ordinary people will suffer more. The only way forward is to recognize what the CCP really is—and end its rule.”
