The Elephant in the Room: Why China Shapes the G7 Summit It Was Never Invited To

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A Club Founded Without Beijing — and It Shows

When the leaders of six major economies first met at a château outside Paris in 1975, China wasn't even a consideration. The country was in revolutionary turmoil under Mao Zedong, its economy a fraction of what it would become. Inviting Mao to sit alongside U.S. President Gerald Ford and French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing would have been unthinkable.

Five decades later, the world looks very different. Yet the G7 — now including Canada and growing to seven members the following year after its 1975 founding — still operates without China. And that absence grows harder to explain with each passing year.

The Numbers Don't Lie

On pure economic weight, China's case for G7 membership would be overwhelming. Its economy now outpaces those of Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Canada — leaving only the United States ahead. Analysts note the absurdity of the situation.

"From being only a tiny, benign panda bear in 1975, China has become a great global dragon," John Kirton, a G7 specialist at the University of Toronto, told the Associated Press. "So many understandably ask: Would the G7 and the global community be better off if China became a member?"

His tentative answer: probably yes — in theory.

But There's a Catch: It's a Democracy Club

The G7 has always operated on an unwritten rule: membership is reserved for democracies. The founding declaration in 1975 spoke of governments "dedicated to individual liberty and social advancement."

China under Xi Jinping does not meet that standard. According to annual rankings from Freedom House, the World Press Freedom Index, and Canada's Fraser Institute — all measuring civil liberties and political freedoms — China consistently scores near the bottom among major economies.

Trump himself briefly floated the idea of expanding the club to include China last year, calling it "not a bad idea." But no serious move in that direction has followed.

China Absent, China Everywhere

French President Emmanuel Macron, hosting this year's summit, made a notable gesture just days before the leaders arrived: he organized a video call between G7 nations and China on June 12 specifically to address global trade imbalances. Beijing was given a hearing — just not a seat.

The reason is hard to miss. China announced a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025 alone, and its dominance over rare earth minerals — the materials essential for electric vehicles, defense systems, and advanced electronics — has exposed deep vulnerabilities in Western supply chains.

In response to U.S. tariffs, China introduced two waves of export restrictions on rare earth elements in 2025. The second wave has been temporarily suspended until November 2026 — a sword hanging over the G7 economies as they meet in Évian.

The International Energy Agency has placed the full-implementation risk of China's export controls at $6.5 trillion annually in at-risk economic output for countries outside China, with the United States and Europe facing the greatest direct exposure.

The Évian summit agenda focuses on four trade priorities: controlling industrial overcapacity, strengthening supply-chain resilience, modernizing the multilateral trade system, and promoting safer cross-border e-commerce. All four points lead, in one way or another, back to Beijing.

Beijing Watches — Warily

China's government has long criticized the G7 as a Cold War relic designed to maintain Western dominance. But ahead of this week's summit, Beijing softened its tone. A Chinese Foreign Ministry statement told the AP that "the G7 should serve as a catalyst for solidarity and cooperation rather than an amplifier of division and confrontation."

Beijing-based analyst Wang Zichen offered a sharper read: "Beijing is wary of the G7 because it sees the group as structurally aligned with U.S.-led Western power, and increasingly as a venue where China is discussed as a challenge or threat." And yet, he added, China cannot afford to ignore what the club decides.

The Russia Warning

There's also a cautionary tale from recent history. Russia joined the club in 1998, making it briefly the G8. It was expelled after seizing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 — a preview of the full-scale invasion that followed in 2022.

Trump has since called Russia's original exclusion "a very big mistake." But most G7 leaders draw the opposite lesson: letting in a non-democratic power creates more problems than it solves.

France is using the summit to ensure Europe remains relevant as the United States and China pursue their own bilateral diplomacy — a dynamic that leaves the other five G7 members navigating between two giants neither of whom fully respects the club's rules.

A Club That Can't Afford to Ignore What It Won't Let In

Analysts are blunt about what China's formal inclusion would mean. "China inside would indeed be a Trojan horse," Kirton warned, suggesting that individual G7 members might break ranks to cut separate deals with Beijing on trade, minerals, or technology.

Chris Alden of the London School of Economics put it simply: admitting China "would make it very difficult for it to function."

The summit's trade agenda will see members seek economic diversification with other G7 partners and look to counter the non-market practices of China and other states.

The paradox is complete: the G7 needs China to cooperate on trade, climate, and supply chains — but cannot include Beijing without unraveling the democratic values that define the club in the first place. So China remains the elephant in the room: too large to ignore, too authoritarian to invite.

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Sources

1. Associated Press, "Trump and other G7 leaders are meeting without China. Is that a mistake?" (document provided) — apnews.com
2. EUobserver, "G7 in Evian: Macron uses 'middle powers' summit to toughen EU line on China" — https://euobserver.com/221678/g7-in-evian-macron-uses-middle-powers-summit-to-toughen-eu-line-on-china/
3. TechTimes, "G7 Summit 2026: Iran Hormuz Deal, Tariff Deadline, Rare-Earth Crisis Hit Evian" — https://www.techtimes.com/articles/318327/20260613/g7-summit-2026-iran-hormuz-deal-tariff-deadline-rare-earth-crisis-hit-evian.htm
4. European Parliament Think Tank, "China's rare-earth export restrictions" — https://epthinktank.eu/2025/11/24/chinas-rare-earth-export-restrictions/
5. Chicago Council on Global Affairs, "The G7's Overriding Goal: Getting Through" — https://globalaffairs.org/commentary/analysis/g7s-overriding-goal-getting-through
6. Atlantic Council, "Seven charts that will define France's G7 summit" — https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/seven-charts-that-will-define-frances-g7-summit/
7. University of Toronto G7 Research Group, "Promising but Precarious Prospects for the G7's Evian Summit" — https://www.g7.utoronto.ca/evaluations/2026evian/kirton-G7-prospects-260331.html

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