China's Empty Chair: Beijing Skips Asia's Premier Defense Forum — Again

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For the second year in a row, China's defense minister is absent from the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Analysts say it's a deliberate strategy to dodge uncomfortable questions — but Western allies are growing increasingly frustrated with Beijing's silence.

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The Most Talked-About Empty Seat in Singapore

Every year, Singapore's Shangri-La Hotel becomes the meeting point for the world's top defense officials. For three days, defense ministers, generals, and security analysts gather to discuss the most pressing issues facing the Indo-Pacific region. The forum, organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), is now in its 23rd year.

This year, however, the loudest conversation isn't about what's being said — it's about who isn't there. China's Defense Minister Dong Jun has skipped the event for the second year running, leaving the world's most powerful authoritarian military with no senior voice at the table.

In his place, Beijing sent a delegation of researchers and academics affiliated with the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The group is led by Major General Meng Xiangqing of the PLA National Defense University — a significant step down from the ministerial-level representation that other major powers consider standard at an event of this importance.

A Pattern, Not a Coincidence

China's history with the Shangri-La Dialogue is instructive. Beijing first sent a delegation in 2007. Its defense minister appeared in 2011, and again from 2019 through 2024 — except during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, when the forum was suspended entirely. Last year marked the first time in years that a Chinese defense minister failed to show up. This year, that absence has been repeated.

When Beijing's defense ministry announced the decision on May 28, spokesperson Jiang Bin offered no explanation. The ministry said only that officials from PLA-affiliated research institutes and the navy would attend. No further comment was given.

Analysts are less reticent. Chong Ja Ian, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, put it plainly: Beijing, he believes, is trying to avoid difficult questions. A delegation of academics, he noted, lacks both the authority and the political mandate to speak on behalf of the Chinese state — which raises obvious questions about what such a delegation can actually contribute to a forum built around direct, high-level strategic dialogue.

What Beijing Is Avoiding

Two topics above all others are casting a shadow over this year's forum — and both point directly at Beijing.

The first is Taiwan. At a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping earlier this month, Xi declared Taiwan "the most important issue" in U.S.-China relations. Trump's response was notably vague, saying he was taking a "neutral" position. For countries across the Indo-Pacific that depend on American security commitments, that word landed with unsettling force.

The second is internal. China's military has been convulsed by a sweeping anti-corruption campaign. In May 2026, two former defense ministers — Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu — were sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve in what became one of the most dramatic prosecutions in the history of the PLA. Questions about how deeply corruption has affected the actual fighting capacity of China's armed forces remain officially unanswered — and deeply inconvenient.

A Chinese defense minister at the Shangri-La Dialogue would face both of these issues head-on, in front of cameras, in front of allies, and in front of adversaries. Sending researchers instead avoids all of that.

Allies Call It Out

The decision has not gone unnoticed — or uncriticized.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth addressed it directly during his keynote speech on Saturday. He said he wished his Chinese counterpart were present, adding that he looked forward to other occasions to communicate, particularly on incidents at sea and in the air where "actions are perceived differently" by each side.

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles was more pointed, describing China's low-level presence as a lost opportunity for frank, face-to-face talks on the region's most volatile pressure points.

Germany's chief of defense, General Carsten Breuer, went further still. Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of the forum, he warned that China was losing a critical chance at dialogue — and that this was "dangerous." In 42 years as a soldier, he said, he had never seen the world as threatening as it is today.

Zhou Bo, a retired PLA senior colonel who was part of the Chinese delegation, pushed back on the criticism. He acknowledged the delegation's level was relatively low but insisted that academic delegations have attended before, and that the minister's absence was not unprecedented.

Hegseth's Measured Tone — A Deliberate Shift

One notable element of this year's forum is a change in register from the American side. Last year, Hegseth had taken a hard line at the same event, calling China a direct threat and urging Asian allies to significantly increase defense spending. Beijing responded by accusing Washington of "vilifying" China.

This year, Hegseth's language was more calibrated. He acknowledged that U.S.-China relations were in better shape than they had been in years, and stopped short of labeling Beijing an imminent military threat. At the same time, he drew a clear line: no country, he said — including China — should be permitted to impose its dominance and hold the security or prosperity of the United States and its allies hostage.

The contrast between the two years is striking. Whether it reflects a genuine recalibration of U.S. strategy, or simply a desire not to inflame tensions ahead of further diplomatic engagement with Beijing, remains to be seen.

The Forum's Real Purpose — And China's Place in It

Bilahari Kausikan, one of Singapore's most experienced diplomats, offered a useful perspective on the broader stakes. The Shangri-La Dialogue, he said, has always had a primary function: ensuring that the U.S. defense secretary travels to Southeast Asia at least once a year and reinforces Washington's commitment to the region. China's ministerial presence, while welcome, is ultimately secondary to that goal.

That framing is accurate — but it also highlights a broader shift. For years, China's growing participation in the forum was seen as a sign of confidence, a willingness to engage on equal terms. Two consecutive no-shows by the defense minister suggest something different: a Beijing that is increasingly reluctant to subject itself to multilateral scrutiny, preferring instead to control its own narrative through carefully curated channels.

What This Means

The Shangri-La Dialogue is not just a conference. It is a space where military misunderstandings can be walked back, where bilateral meetings happen that would otherwise require months of diplomatic preparation, and where trust — or the absence of it — becomes visible.

China's empty chair sends a message. For the nations of the Indo-Pacific, many of whom are navigating a delicate balance between their economic dependence on Beijing and their security concerns about the CCP's military expansion, the signal is not reassuring. Dialogue requires showing up. And right now, Beijing appears to prefer the shadows over the stage.

Related: Our earlier coverage of the run-up to this year's summit — Asia on Edge: The Shangri-La Summit That Could Reshape the Pacific Order — examined the broader strategic tensions surrounding the 2026 dialogue, including questions over American credibility on Taiwan and the region's shifting security architecture.

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Sources:

1. Reuters – China sends low-profile delegation to Shangri-La Dialogue, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/where-is-china-ask-delegates-asian-defence-forum-2026-05-30/
2. South China Morning Post – China defence chief Dong Jun tipped to skip Shangri-La Dialogue: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3354871/china-defence-chief-dong-jun-tipped-skip-years-shangri-la-dialogue
3. CNBC – Germany: China is "losing a chance" by not attending Shangri-La Dialogue: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/30/germany-china-shangri-la-dialogue-defense-minister.html
4. Modern Diplomacy – China's limited role at Shangri-La Dialogue seen as missed opportunity: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/05/29/chinas-limited-role-at-shangri-la-dialogue-seen-as-missed-opportunity/
5. Malay Mail / Reuters – China skips sending defence minister to key Asia security summit for second straight year: https://www.malaymail.com/amp/news/world/2026/05/28/china-skips-sending-defence-minister-to-key-asia-security-summit-for-second-straight-year/221727
6. IISS – Official Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 page: https://www.iiss.org/events/shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2026/

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