China’s Coercive South China Sea Strategy Threatens to Destabilize Indo-Pacific: Experts

Sep 20, 2025 - 09:55

Updated: 8 months ago

China’s Coercive South China Sea Strategy Threatens to Destabilize Indo-Pacific: Experts

China is using water cannon attacks and an environmental guise in an attempt to legitimize its de facto control over parts of the South China Sea—a strategy that experts warn threatens to weaken regional sovereignty, erode maritime law, and destabilize the Indo-Pacific.

A Philippine ship was targeted by water cannons from Chinese coast guard vessels on Sept. 16 near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

The attack caused “significant damage” to a fisheries vessel, Jay Tarriela, a spokesperson for the Philippine coast guard, wrote in a LinkedIn post, adding that a crew member was injured by shattered glass from the water cannon.

The China coast guard defended the incident, with a spokesperson saying its vessels took “control measures” against Philippine government ships accused of entering what Beijing considers its territorial waters.

A tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, however, ruled in 2016 that China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, including the nine-dash line, had no legal basis and declared its actions in Philippine waters illegal.

‘A Chilling Effect’

These aggressive actions are having a direct impact on the ground, say experts.

Lucio Pitlo III, president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies (PACS), told The Epoch Times that as Manila continues to encourage its fishermen to fish around the shoal and provide protection and supplies, Beijing’s recent provocative moves “may send a chilling effect.”

“I don’t expect the Philippine government to back down on this, [but] I think that would have an immediate impact on fishermen that would be deprived of their livelihood,” Pitlo said.

Beyond the immediate impact on local fishermen, Pitlo warned that such confrontations also damage the broader bilateral relationship between Manila and Beijing.

China’s Environmental Lawfare

The confrontation is part of Beijing’s multi-pronged approach, which also involves legal tactics to assert its claims.

On Sept. 9, China approved a controversial nature reserve plan in the South China Sea, marking a significant departure from established precedent and drawing sharp diplomatic condemnation from Manila.

The designated nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal spans 3,500 hectares (8,650 acres), ostensibly to protect the ecosystem and to maintain “diversity, stability and sustainability,” according to officials.

However, Vincent Kyle Parada, a former defense analyst for the Philippine navy, told The Epoch Times that the latest initiative from China is “a clear example of what we call lawfare.”

An aerial view of Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on Feb. 15, 2024. Jam Sta Rosa/ AFP via Getty Images

He said that Beijing’s goal is to “package its occupation of Scarborough Shoal as a legitimate activity under the guise of environmental protection and maritime law enforcement.”

Parada added that in that way, Chinese authorities could frame Philippine attempts to assert their sovereignty and territorial integrity as intrusions into a protected zone, “essentially flipping the narrative on Manila.”

Even though some countries have utilized legal systems to achieve their strategic objectives, “what distinguishes China’s recent attempt is that it is a deliberate misrepresentation of the law,” he stated.

“Beijing itself is responsible for irreparable environmental damage to the South China Sea—whether it’s through unregulated, and unreported fishing, island-building activities, or other destructive practices,” Parada said.

As most countries are already aware of this, Parada says Beijing’s effort is to reinforce the domestic narrative rather than win the reputational battle on the world stage.

Challenge to the Indo-Pacific

Hunter Marston, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, warned that Beijing’s recent attempts to occupy the Philippines’ territory show it has largely ignored international law.

“The tensions were on high display, so the implications of China’s occupation of Scarborough Shoal, which falls within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone, are pretty significant in that it shows that China has the active ability to undermine the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea to which it is a signatory,” Marston told The Epoch Times.

Marston further stated that China could therefore expand its presence throughout the South China Sea, which could pose a significant challenge to the Indo-Pacific.

“China can cross the Pacific and slowly erode the sovereignty of littoral states like the Philippines, thereby undermining the United States’ ability to come to its allies’ defense,” he said.

A Chinese navy helicopter flies close to a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources plane above Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on Feb. 18, 2025. Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

Marston added that recent Chinese behavior could also jeopardize the United States’ guarantee of freedom of navigation—a critical principle for global powers and the world economy—in the South China Sea.

US–Philippines Alliance in Action

On Sept. 12, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio directly addressed the nature reserve plan on social media.

“This is yet another coercive attempt to advance China’s interests at the expense of its neighbors and regional stability,” Rubio wrote on X, expressing Washington’s stance backing Manila.

MaryKay L. Carlson, U.S. ambassador to the Philippines, echoed this stance. On Sept. 16, she said on X that the United States condemned China’s aggressive actions in the Philippines’ territory and commended the Philippine government for “protecting Filipino fisherfolk and upholding maritime law for a #FreeAndOpenIndoPacific.”

Pitlo, the PACS president, who is also a research fellow at the Asia Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, reinforced this position, noting that the United States and its allies deem China’s move as a violation of international norms and would likely not allow Beijing to turn traditional fishing grounds into an exclusionary regime.

“I think the U.S. and Philippines will challenge this diplomatically through protests and messaging, formal communication, as well as in public statements to the media, and at the same time through actions on the ground,” Pitlo said.

Marston from CSIS confirmed that this strategy of confronting Beijing is already being solidified through the alliance’s core pillars, specifically the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, which allows the U.S. and Philippine militaries to train together and respond to local crises.

“That reflects the Philippines’ overarching national security priority of checking China’s incursions into Philippine territorial waters, so the United States has transferred some military equipment and made provisions in terms of defense assistance to the Philippines,” he said.

Marston said that these specific actions, along with the strong statements from U.S. officials, are the practical application of a much broader U.S. doctrine designed to maintain primacy in the Pacific.

“The United States comes to the defense of its allies and partners, and its maximal goal is to deter China and to prevent it from expanding its territorial presence in the South China Sea, which impinges on core U.S. interests such as the freedom of navigation and freedom of commerce,” Marston said.