Taiwan Rehearses Its Worst Nightmare: Earthquake, Blockade and Chinese Invasion — All at Once

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A Crisis Piled on Top of a Crisis

This week, central Taiwan became the stage for a chilling simulation. Officials in Nantou County faced a scenario combining nearly every threat Taiwan fears: a Chinese naval blockade, sabotaged infrastructure, hijacked television broadcasts, a bank run, civil unrest — and finally, a full-scale invasion.

To make matters worse, the exercise also simulated a magnitude 6.8 earthquake killing twelve people, a disaster Beijing was scripted to exploit for further chaos. More than 370 government and military officials had to respond to both crises at the same time.

The drill was part of President Lai Ching-te's push to toughen the island's defenses as China's military activity around Taiwan intensifies. Reuters journalists were granted rare access to the closed-door exercise, offering an unusually detailed look at how Taiwan prepares for the worst.

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Moving Beyond Scripted Drills

Taiwan has held civil defense exercises for years, but many were criticized as staged and of limited practical value. This year's drill was designed to be different, blending a seven-hour tabletop exercise with hands-on field tests, including shooting down a simulated Chinese drone threatening a power plant and setting up emergency food distribution.

"Our adversary is right on our doorstep, just across the Taiwan Strait," Chi Lien-cheng, the minister overseeing the drill, told Reuters. He acknowledged shortcomings and warned that real resources could fall short in an actual disaster, but said the goal was to test whether officials could absorb these lessons under pressure.

Organizers drew heavily on lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East. Hospital operations were moved underground, and professional hackers were brought in to stress-test government networks — an approach meant to make the simulation feel closer to a real crisis than previous drills.

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Testing Information Warfare

A central focus this year was countering Chinese disinformation. In the scenario, local television stations were hijacked and replaced with Beijing propaganda, while fake flyers spread panic on the streets. Officials responded with mock press conferences designed to train participants in spotting false information quickly.

Lee I-yuan, a 75-year-old community leader who took part, said the exercise helped him learn to separate fact from fiction. "If the other side attacks, they will definitely use AI to spread false information," he said.

The drill also tested civil-military coordination in unprecedented depth. Military reserve commands worked directly with local governments, and officials were pressed on granular readiness questions — from how many draft-age men could be mobilized overnight to how much baby formula was in stock.

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Beijing's Response

China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, while Taiwan's government insists only its own people can decide the island's future. As the drill wrapped up, Taiwan reported that China had carried out another "combat readiness patrol" involving warships and at least 22 military aircraft, including nuclear-capable H-6 bombers.

Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office accused President Lai of "deliberately escalating" tensions, calling him a threat to cross-strait peace. Such rhetoric is consistent with the Chinese Communist Party's long-standing pattern of framing Taiwan's defensive preparations as provocation, even as its own military activity around the island continues to expand.

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A Broader Push for Readiness

The Nantou drill fits into a much larger effort by Taipei to harden the island against coercion. Taiwan's legislature passed a $24.8 billion, eight-year special defense budget in May 2026 to fund U.S. arms purchases, part of President Lai's plan to raise defense spending toward 5 percent of GDP by 2030. The Trump administration has welcomed the move, with officials saying they support Taiwan "commensurate with the threat it faces."

Analysts note that U.S. intelligence has previously assessed that Chinese leader Xi Jinping directed the People's Liberation Army to be ready for a potential Taiwan operation by 2027 — a capability deadline, not necessarily a decision to invade. Even so, the assessment has added urgency to Taiwan's civil defense buildup, including plans that designate nearly 6,000 rationing stations and thousands of shelters nationwide.

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Outlook

Nantou's assignment in the drill was symbolic as well as practical: as Taiwan's only landlocked county, it was designated a "rear area" — a refuge for people fleeing combat zones elsewhere on the island. Officials say future drills will test even harder scenarios, including nationwide communications blackouts and large-scale cyberattacks.

As Lin Fei-fan, deputy secretary-general of Taiwan's National Security Council, put it: a well-prepared society is itself a form of deterrence. "When they know Taiwan's society is prepared, they will have to think very carefully about whether to launch such a costly war against Taiwan — one that may not succeed."

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SOURCES

1. Reuters – "Inside Taiwan's nightmare scenario: Chinese blockade, earthquake, sabotage and invasion" – https://www.reuters.com/world/china/inside-taiwans-nightmare-scenario-chinese-blockade-earthquake-sabotage-invasion-2026-07-03/
2. CBS News (based on AP reporting) – "Taiwan announces $40 billion budget for weapons purchases as U.S. pressures island to increase defense spending" – https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taiwan-40-billion-budget-weapons-purchases-us-defense-spending/
3. NPR – "Taiwan president's defense plan hits gridlock as China ramps up pressure" – https://www.npr.org/2026/01/22/nx-s1-5683130/taiwan-defense-spending
4. German Marshall Fund of the United States – "Taiwan's Push for Societal Resilience" – https://www.gmfus.org/news/taiwans-push-societal-resilience
5. Congress.gov / Congressional Research Service – "Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues" – https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12481

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