US Tells Allies: Choose Washington or Beijing in the Global AI Race

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A Clear Ultimatum From Washington

The State Department has drafted a letter warning partner nations they must pick a side in the escalating technology rivalry between the United States and China. The message is blunt: countries that sign on to China's competing AI framework risk being pushed out of the U.S.-led coalition.

"To be part of everything is to be part of nothing," the draft letter states, according to Reuters, which reviewed the internal document. It urges recipients to "choose deliberately" rather than try to balance memberships in both camps.

The letter has not yet been sent, and it remains unclear whether Washington will revise its wording before doing so. The State Department declined to comment on what it called "purportedly leaked internal documents."

What Is Pax Silica?

Washington launched the Pax Silica initiative in late 2025 to secure supply chains for AI models, semiconductors, and the critical minerals needed to build them. The framework now includes roughly two dozen countries, among them close U.S. allies such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea.

In June, 35 countries went a step further and signed a companion "AI Opportunity Statement," symbolically committing to a "common purpose" and "shared vision" with Washington on AI development. It is these 35 signatories who will receive the new warning letter.

One country stands out: Kazakhstan. It is so far the only nation known to belong to both the American and Chinese coalitions — a dual membership that has reportedly unsettled U.S. officials, given Kazakhstan's importance as a supplier of critical minerals.

Beijing's Countermove

The pressure campaign comes after Chinese leader Xi Jinping launched a rival body in July, the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO), during a keynote address in Shanghai. Twenty-nine countries signed on as founding members, including Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, Pakistan, and Indonesia — but no major Western democracy.

Xi framed the new organization as a way to prevent AI from being "dominated by a single country" and pledged thousands of AI training slots for developing nations, according to a report by France 24, which noted Xi's remarks came as Chinese AI firms increasingly challenge U.S. rivals while attracting users abroad with lower costs. Critics see it differently: as an attempt by the Chinese Communist Party to rally friendly governments, many from the Global South, against U.S. technological leadership.

The South China Morning Post reported that Chinese officials have insisted WAICO was not designed as a rival to Pax Silica, even as international observers have scrutinized the body as a strategic move by Beijing to build support against Washington in the contest for global AI leadership. The outlet also noted that Pax Silica itself, with 24 members focused on building supply-chain security, is widely seen as an effort to build a technology bloc walled off from China.

Why This Matters Now

A U.S. official told Reuters that the goal is to make clear "you can't have it both ways" — a country cannot credibly claim to be a trusted AI partner of Washington while simultaneously joining a Beijing-designed initiative built around a competing vision.

The stakes are rising because the technological gap between the two superpowers is narrowing. Chinese open-weight AI models have made rapid gains against proprietary U.S. systems from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, unsettling assumptions of a durable American lead.

China has also weaponized its near-monopoly on critical minerals before, using export restrictions as leverage in the tariff dispute launched last year under President Donald Trump. Trump has since pushed to expand domestic mineral production and diversify supply toward trusted allies — a policy direction Pax Silica is designed to reinforce.

Background: A Party-Driven Rivalry

Beijing's push for global AI influence fits a broader pattern under Chinese Communist Party rule: presenting state-controlled technology and centrally directed alliances as gestures of international goodwill, while using them to expand political leverage over other nations. Independent observers have long noted that initiatives launched by the CCP typically serve the Party's strategic interests first, even when marketed as public goods for developing countries.

Washington's approach under the Trump administration has instead emphasized transparent alliances built around shared democratic and economic principles — an explicit contrast to Beijing's model of state-directed technological expansion.

What Comes Next

Reuters could not confirm when the letter will be sent or whether its language will change beforehand. But the message from Washington is already clear: neutrality is no longer an option for countries hoping to remain inside the American AI and critical-minerals ecosystem.

For governments like Kazakhstan's, caught between two competing superpowers, the coming weeks may force a decision they have so far avoided — one that could reshape alliances across the global AI and critical-minerals landscape for years to come.

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Sources

1. Reuters – "US to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China," Aug 14, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-tell-partners-they-must-pick-sides-ai-race-with-china-2026-08-14/
2. South China Morning Post – "China urged to avoid 'us or them' split with US over AI governance": https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3364019/china-urged-avoid-us-or-them-split-us-over-ai-governance
3. France 24 – "China's Xi urges global cooperation on AI, warns against single-country dominance": https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260717-china-s-xi-urges-global-cooperation-on-ai-warns-against-single-country-dominance

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