US Releases New Details on Alleged 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test
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A senior State Department official released additional evidence Tuesday in support of U.S. allegations that China conducted an underground nuclear test in June 2020, as global arms control frameworks unravel.
“I’ve looked at additional data since then. There is very little possibility I would say that it is anything but an explosion, a singular explosion,” Yeaw said, underscoring that the data were not consistent with blasts from mining.
“It’s also entirely not consistent with an earthquake,” said Yeaw, a former intelligence analyst and defense official who holds a doctorate in nuclear engineering. “It is ... what you would expect with a nuclear explosive test.”
Yeaw argued that China tried to hide the event through decoupling, detonating the device in a spacious underground cavity to diminish seismic waves.
“Today, I can reveal that the U.S. Government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons,” DiNanno said.
These claims back up Yeaw’s assertions of concealment tactics.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, which monitors global explosions, noted that available data do not allow for firm conclusions. Executive Secretary Robert Floyd said in a statement that the seismic monitoring station in Kazakhstan captured “two very small seismic events” 12 seconds apart on June 22, 2020.
The organization’s network detects events equivalent to 551 tons (500 metric tons) of TNT or more, according to Floyd.
“These two events were far below that level,” Floyd said. “As a result, with this data alone, it is not possible to assess the cause of these events with confidence.”
China, a signatory to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty but not a ratifier, rejected the initial U.S. accusation at an international conference this month. Beijing’s last acknowledged underground test occurred in 1996.
The United States, which also signed but did not ratify the treaty, is legally bound to its terms under international norms. America’s final underground test was in 1992, with subsequent reliance on sophisticated simulations and supercomputers for warhead maintenance.
China refused the invitation, arguing that its arsenal is far smaller than those of the United States and Russia. The Pentagon estimates China’s current operational warheads at more than 600. The stockpile is expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030.
The New START accord expiration removes caps on deployed strategic warheads and delivery vehicles, potentially accelerating buildups. Russia and the United States said they would informally observe limits.
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