Taiwan’s Political Deadlock Between Ruling Administration and Opposition

Taiwan’s Political Deadlock Between Ruling Administration and Opposition

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Taiwan is facing a rare political crisis after the executive branch refused to enact amendments to a government spending law passed by the opposition-controlled legislature, underscoring domestic divisions as the island confronts escalating military pressure and coercion from China.

The administration of President Lai Ching-te has said the amendments undermine fiscal sustainability and were drafted without proper consultation. Under the amendments, Taiwan’s central government would be required to allocate a larger share of its revenue to the local governments.

Lai has said that the amendments to the law, which is officially called the Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures, would force the central government to borrow up to NT$563.7 billion (about $17.9 billion) in 2026, in violation of the statutory deficit ceiling set by the island’s Public Debt Act.

The opposition, which has called Lai a “dictator” over his decision not to promulgate the amendments, has said it will start impeachment proceedings against him in the island’s legislature on Dec. 26.

The opposition has also filed a request to the Control Yuan, Taiwan’s top government watchdog, to initiate an investigation and consider impeaching Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai, who has refused to countersign the amendments.

Under Taiwan’s Constitution, the premier must countersign legislation before the president can promulgate it into law.

Here’s what has led to this crisis and how events could unfold.

The 2024 Elections

In January 2024, Lai won the presidential election by a margin of nearly 920,000 votes over second-place Hou Yu-ih, a candidate of the Kuomintang Party (KMT). Lai’s victory gave the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) an unprecedented third consecutive term, after eight years with Tsai Ing-wen at the helm.

Despite the presidential election victory, the DPP lost its majority in the legislature to the KMT and its much smaller ally, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), after legislative elections held on the same day as the presidential election.

The DPP won 51 seats in the 113-seat legislature, while the KMT picked up 52 seats and the TPP 8 seats.

By holding the presidency, the DPP also runs Taiwan’s government.

Since the 2024 elections, the opposition has used its majority to block or stymie key government proposals, including the budget, while pushing its own agenda, resulting in repeated deadlock between the executive and legislature.

Both the DPP and the opposition have accused the other of breaching the constitution in the ongoing spending dispute.

In July and August, a recall effort led by civic groups and backed by the DPP failed, as all 31 targeted KMT lawmakers retained their legislative seats. Critics of the KMT lawmakers have accused them of being too friendly toward communist China, while the lawmakers said they are trying to promote peace and avoid conflicts.

Impeachment

Impeaching Lai would require a two-thirds majority in the legislature, a threshold the opposition does not have the numbers to reach.

Even if it were to pass, which is a highly unlikely outcome, the measure would still require a ruling from the Constitutional Court, which has been largely brought to a standstill because of a separate dispute between the Lai administration and the opposition over the appointment of new judges.

Currently, the 15-seat court has eight justices after seven completed their terms in late 2024, and the opposition has rejected nominations to fill the vacancies.

The court now requires a minimum of 10 justices to hear and rule on a case, after new legislative amendments took effect in January.

There is also a possible scenario where the opposition could pass a motion of no confidence against Cho. If the motion is passed, Lai would have the option of dissolving the legislature within 10 days, with new legislative elections to take place within 60 days.

The DPP has said the opposition is welcome to try to oust Cho from office through a no-confidence vote, but KMT lawmakers have indicated that they don’t intend to pursue such a move to avoid triggering new elections.

China Threat

The political crisis in Taiwan is happening against a backdrop of escalating Chinese military pressure and coercion against Taiwan and the Lai administration.

The Chinese communist regime sees Taiwan as a part of its territory, and has not ruled out the use of military force to seize the island. The regime considers Lai as a “separatist” for his outspoken defense of Taiwan’s sovereignty.

In November, Lai announced $40 billion in new proposed defense spending to counter Beijing’s potential military attack on the island by 2027. The latest budget would be allocated from 2026 to 2033 for projects including the construction of an air defense system called “Taiwan Dome,” according to Lai.

The Lai administration and the opposition are also at loggerheads over the new military spending. On Dec. 23, the opposition blocked talks on the defense budget bill for the fourth time.

A poll released on Dec. 22 by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found that around 54 percent of respondents disapproved of the opposition’s blocking of the defense budget review, while around 30 percent approved. The poll was conducted from Dec. 15 to Dec. 17, polling 1,077 adults aged 20 or older.
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The Pentagon, in its annual report on China’s military developments released on Dec. 23, stated that “China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027.”
The Chinese military “continues to refine multiple military options to force Taiwan unification by brute force,” the report stated, with these options including an amphibious invasion, a firepower strike, and possibly a maritime blockade.

Upcoming Elections

Taiwan’s next major elections are scheduled for November 2026, when voters will choose city mayors, city councilors, county chiefs, and county councilors.

Although the upcoming elections mostly focus on local issues, they are widely seen as a key indicator of party support ahead of Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections in early 2028.

In the last local elections in 2022, the KMT secured victories in 13 cities and counties, while the DPP won five.
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Reuters contributed to this report.
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