Pomp, Patience and Pressure: Is Trump Playing a Longer Game With Xi?

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A red-carpet welcome, few headline deals

Xi's visit ran from September 23 to 25 in Washington, D.C., and repeated Trump's own state visit to China in May. Trump gave Xi an unusual welcome on the airport tarmac, followed by a state dinner, a tea with the first ladies and a tour of the National Archives. The leaders signed an extension of an existing trade pact, and Xi promised to send a pair of pandas to Atlanta.

The substance was thin. Both sides' official readouts show agreement on "favorable tariff treatment" for $30 billion in goods in each direction, continued cooperation on fentanyl, and a new "AI Dialogue." Fox News reported that China has also tightened controls on fentanyl-related chemicals and that, according to the White House, 21 Chinese nationals were arrested in August.

The tariff cuts are not yet in force. The two countries have only agreed to consider them.

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What the critics say

China analysts told Fox News Digital that Beijing came out ahead. Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argued that the current trade ceasefire mainly helps China. In his view it gives Beijing time to pursue technological self-reliance and narrow the gap in areas such as artificial intelligence.

Gordon Chang, a long-time China hawk, made a similar point about time. While the two sides talk, he said, action on hard problems is put off.

Other outlets reached similar conclusions. CNN described the summit as heavy on pomp and light on substance, a muted replay of the May visit to Beijing. Foreign Policy noted that no comprehensive deals on tariffs, rare earths or soybean purchases had been announced.

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The other reading

The critics' verdict rests on what was visible in three days. Trump's defenders argue that a summit's public face and its real purpose can differ. Ceremony costs little, and it can lower the temperature with a rival that holds real leverage over U.S. industry through its control of rare earths and other critical minerals.

Some facts fit this view. The trade truce reached in Busan in October 2025 cut U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to 47% from 57% and paused China's new export controls on rare earths. The extension keeps that arrangement in place. Trump also described Xi as a "very tough negotiating opponent" at that earlier meeting, so he clearly does not see him as a friend.

The military and diplomatic pressure has not gone away either. CSIS analysts expect the administration to sell arms to Taiwan within the next 12 months, and note bipartisan support in Congress and a large new Taiwanese defense budget. Fox News also reports that U.S. Ambassador David Perdue says Trump warned Xi against helping Iran, and that China subsequently "pulled some things down." Perdue did not say what.

Whether this adds up to a plan is a matter of interpretation. Nobody outside the negotiating rooms can say, and this article does not claim otherwise.

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What remains unresolved

The open questions are serious. Fox News notes that China promised in May to address U.S. concerns about critical minerals, yet the issue is still unresolved. Washington remains dissatisfied with rare earth exports to the United States and Japan.

The intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment calls China the most active and persistent cyber threat to U.S. networks. It points to hacking campaigns known as Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon. The first targeted telecommunications networks. The second placed hidden access inside critical infrastructure such as power and water systems.

Trump's remark that "they spy on us and we spy on them too" drew sharp criticism from Chang. He argued that spying on governments is one thing, but targeting universities, civilian institutions and non-governmental organizations is another. That is a fair point about a one-party state that answers to no independent courts or press.

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Outlook

The next tests come quickly. Trump is scheduled to travel to China for the APEC summit in November, and Xi is due in Miami for the G20 summit in December. That makes four meetings between the two leaders this year.

The key signals to watch are whether rare-earth shipments actually normalize, whether the promised tariff cuts take effect, and whether the Taiwan arms package finally moves. Analysts also warn that arms sales and China's reaction could quickly test the stability the summit created.

If those signals turn positive, the patient approach will look wise. If not, the critics' warning about lost time will look justified. The answer will come from what happens after the ceremonies, not from the ceremonies themselves.

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Sources

1. Fox News – "Real winner of Xi summit revealed as Trump looks to usher in new era with China": https://www.foxnews.com/politics/real-winner-xi-summit-revealed-trump-looks-usher-new-era-china
2. CSIS – "Takeaways from the Trump-Xi White House Summit": https://www.csis.org/analysis/takeaways-trump-xi-white-house-summit
3. CNBC – "Trump, Xi wrap state visit centered on spectacle over substance. Here are the top takeaways": https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/trump-xi-summit-takeaways.html
4. Foreign Policy – "Trump and Xi Talked a Lot but Accomplished Little": https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/24/trump-xi-white-house-ai-trade-tariffs-taiwan-critical-minerals/
5. Reuters – "Trump shaves China tariffs in deal with Xi on fentanyl, rare earths": https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-shaves-china-tariffs-deal-124520713.html
6. Modern Diplomacy – "Did Trump's Xi Summit Give China More Than It Gave the US?": https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/09/28/did-trumps-xi-summit-give-china-more-than-it-gave-the-us/
7. SCMP – series page "Xi's 2026 trip to US": https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/series/3364401/xis-2026-trip-us

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