US and China Prepare Groundwork for Possible Trump-Xi Summit as Rubio Meets Wang Yi in Manila

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A High-Stakes Meeting on the Sidelines of ASEAN

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi are set to meet on Wednesday in Manila, where foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and their international partners have gathered for a week of high-level talks. The meeting is one of several bilateral sessions Rubio is holding on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, alongside discussions with counterparts from Japan, Australia, Canada, and other regional partners.

According to a U.S. State Department official, the Manila meeting marks the latest in a series of direct exchanges between Washington and Beijing's top diplomats, following earlier talks in Kuala Lumpur and Munich. This time, the backdrop is different: both governments are quietly preparing for what could be a major diplomatic moment later this year.

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Laying the Groundwork for a Possible Trump-Xi Summit

President Trump has said that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to visit the United States at the end of September, building on the two leaders' meeting last May. Rubio reaffirmed this expectation before departing for Asia, telling reporters he had "no reason to believe" the visit would not go ahead, calling it "important" for U.S.-China relations.

Beijing, notably, has not yet confirmed the visit publicly. Analysts who track U.S.-China relations expect Wednesday's meeting between Rubio and Wang to focus heavily on setting the stage for that potential summit, rather than producing major breakthroughs on unresolved disputes.

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Trump Renews Election Interference Accusations

The diplomatic outreach comes just as President Trump has revived accusations that China interfered in the 2020 U.S. presidential election — claims Beijing firmly denies. Asked on Tuesday what consequences China might face over the allegations, Trump was vague, saying only: "We're going to talk to them about it... It's not a one-way street."

It is worth noting that a 2021 U.S. intelligence community assessment found no evidence that China or any other foreign actor altered "any technical aspect" of the 2020 vote. Still, the timing of Trump's renewed claims — just ahead of the Manila talks — underscores how unresolved tensions continue to shadow even cooperative moments between the two governments.

Rubio, for his part, declined before departing Washington to confirm whether he would raise the issue directly with Wang, calling it a "delicate matter" that would depend on how the meeting unfolds.

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South China Sea Tensions Loom Over the Talks

Beyond the summit preparations, the Manila meeting is also expected to touch on Beijing's continued assertiveness in the South China Sea — a flashpoint that has strained relations between China and several Southeast Asian nations, particularly the Philippines, the ASEAN summit's host this year. Rubio used an op-ed published in Philippine media on Tuesday to reaffirm Washington's commitment to "freedom of navigation" in the region and its defense commitments to allies facing pressure from Beijing's territorial claims — claims that an international tribunal has already ruled have no legal basis under international law.

For Southeast Asian nations navigating between Washington and Beijing, this reaffirmation of U.S. security commitments carries real weight, especially as China continues to expand its footprint in contested waters.

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A Fragile Truce, Tested but Holding

Since the trade truce reached by Trump and Xi last October, U.S.-China relations have stabilized on the surface, even as deep structural disagreements persist — over trade, technology, human rights, and regional security. Many analysts describe the relationship as a new, more managed form of Cold War: rivalry maintained alongside pragmatic dialogue.

Rubio summed up this balancing act over the weekend: "There are always going to be things we don't agree on, but I think it's incumbent on powerful and important countries like ours to continue to talk and have a relationship."

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Outlook

Wednesday's meeting is unlikely to resolve any of the deeper disputes between Washington and Beijing. But as groundwork for a potential Trump-Xi summit in September, it represents a test of whether both governments can keep talking even as election-interference accusations, South China Sea tensions, and broader ideological rivalry continue to strain the relationship. Beijing's response — and whether it moves toward confirming Xi's visit — will be closely watched in the coming weeks.

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Sources

1. Reuters — "Rubio meets China's Wang as US, China prepare for possible Xi visit," July 21, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/rubio-meet-chinese-counterpart-manila-us-official-says-2026-07-21/
2. The Japan Times (Reuters wire) — "Rubio expected to discuss Trump-Xi summit in Asia meetings": https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/07/18/asia-pacific/politics/rubio-trump-xi-summit-asean/
3. Inquirer.net (AP) — "Rubio visiting Manila for Asean foreign ministers' meetings": https://globalnation.inquirer.net/331324/rubio-visiting-manila-for-asean-foreign-ministers-meetings
4. Arab News — "Manila to host Rubio, Lavrov and Wang Yi for ASEAN ministerial": https://www.arabnews.com/node/2651608/amp

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