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A Fourth Meeting, Still No Breakthrough

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat down with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Manila on Thursday, marking their fourth meeting since the Trump administration took office and began pushing to broker an end to the war in Ukraine. It was the fourth such meeting between the two men since 2025, following earlier sessions in Riyadh, Kuala Lumpur and New York.

Rubio was blunt about the state of play. He described previous rounds of U.S.-mediated diplomacy as unproductive so far, but said President Trump remains committed to trying again if circumstances shift enough to make a deal possible. There is no shortcut, he suggested — any resolution will require both sides to accept terms neither has been willing to embrace yet.

Russian state media reported that the meeting, held on the sidelines of the 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum, lasted roughly 35 minutes. Washington offered few details afterward. A State Department spokesperson said only that the two men discussed the U.S.-Russia relationship and the need to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

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Moscow's Line, Washington's Patience

Russia's account of the meeting, released through its Foreign Ministry, stuck closely to the Kremlin's familiar talking points: warnings against further Western arms shipments to Kyiv and accusations that European governments are trying to inflict a "strategic defeat" on Russia rather than pursue peace. Lavrov also reaffirmed that Moscow still considers itself bound by the framework discussed at the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska last August — a framework Ukraine has resisted, since it has been widely understood to involve territorial concessions Kyiv has so far refused to accept.

For its part, the Trump administration has not scaled back military support for Ukraine; weapons continue to reach the country through NATO allies. Rubio made clear that ending the war will require fresh proposals rather than simply repeating positions that have already stalled once. Notably, the talks came as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy carried out a major shake-up of his military leadership, adding a further layer of uncertainty to Kyiv's negotiating position at a delicate moment.

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China Tensions Cast a Long Shadow Over the Summit

Ukraine was far from the only flashpoint discussed in Manila. Beijing's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea dominated much of the sideline diplomacy — and drew sharp criticism from multiple governments. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong renewed her country's alarm over a recent Chinese test-launch of a missile from a nuclear-powered submarine, criticizing Beijing for giving neighboring countries little warning despite the missile's flight path passing near the Philippines and Pacific nations.

The complaint fits a broader pattern: Beijing continues to expand its military reach in the region while offering only selective transparency to the countries most directly affected. On Thursday, that pattern played out again in the water, not just in rhetoric — Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, with Manila's coast guard accusing a Chinese ship of attempting to blast a Filipino resupply boat with a water cannon. Beijing, unsurprisingly, characterized its own actions as "professional and lawful" while accusing the Philippines of provocation — a familiar rhetorical move Beijing has used before to justify pressure on smaller neighbors it heavily outguns.

Rubio met separately with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and called the shoal incident "escalatory," while also confirming that Chinese leader Xi Jinping's planned visit to Washington in September remains on track. ASEAN nations, meanwhile, are working to finalize a long-delayed non-aggression pact with Beijing this year, an agreement meant to head off a larger conflict in one of the world's most important trade corridors.

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Iran Crisis Competes for Washington's Attention

Rubio also had to defend the administration's bandwidth, given that U.S. forces are simultaneously engaged in an intensifying confrontation with Iran following the collapse of an interim ceasefire. He argued that Washington's steady diplomatic presence across Asia — trade ties, defense partnerships and daily engagement — refutes any suggestion that the U.S. is too distracted elsewhere to matter in the region.

On Iran specifically, Rubio suggested Tehran wants renewed talks but that Trump sees little value in negotiating with a government he judges "not ready to make a deal." Trump has warned that U.S. strikes will escalate each time Iranian forces target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a firm posture consistent with the administration's broader approach of responding to provocations from adversarial regimes with strength rather than concessions.

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What Comes Next

None of Thursday's meetings produced a breakthrough, and Rubio was careful not to oversell the prospects. But the fact that Washington and Moscow are still talking — for the fourth time in roughly a year and a half — keeps a diplomatic channel open at a moment when the war shows no sign of winding down on its own. Whether that channel produces real movement will likely depend less on Manila than on events on the battlefield, in Kyiv's own political stability, and on how the parallel crises in the Middle East and South China Sea evolve in the weeks ahead.

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Sources

1. Associated Press — "US is ready to help end the 'senseless war' in Ukraine but no quick deal ahead, Rubio says": https://apnews.com/article/asean-rubio-lavrov-russia-ukraine-502b5eb2dc21caf13fab7928acdc5b1e
2. Al Jazeera — "Top US and Russian diplomats discuss Ukraine war in Manila": https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/23/top-us-and-russian-diplomats-discuss-ukraine-war-in-manila
3. Korea Times (Reuters-Yonhap) — "Rubio meets Russia's Lavrov in Manila to try to revive prospect of US helping end war in Ukraine": https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260723/rubio-meets-russias-lavrov-in-manila-to-try-to-revive-prospect-of-us-helping-end-war-in-ukraine
4. HNGN — "Rubio Meets Russia's Lavrov In Manila To Revive The Prospect Of US Helping End Ukraine War": https://www.hngn.com/articles/272287/20260723/rubio-meets-russias-lavrov-manila-revive-prospect-us-helping-end-war-in-ukraine.htm

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