Cuba's Blackout Crisis Masks a Deeper Security Problem, Report Warns

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A Small Island, A Big Warning

Cuba lies just 90 miles from Florida. For years, most American attention on the island has focused on human rights, migration and its collapsing economy. A new report says that focus has come at a cost.

The report, titled The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Fight for the Western Hemisphere, was published by the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a think tank aligned with the Trump administration. Its author, Melissa Ford Maldonado, argues that Washington has underestimated the national security risks flowing from Cuba's relationships with Moscow, Beijing and Tehran.

"Cuba is a massive national security threat to the U.S.," Ford Maldonado told Fox News Digital ahead of the report's release, describing the Cuban government as a "hostile communist regime" positioned close to American shores.

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What the Report Actually Claims

The report's strongest evidence concerns China. A June 2026 analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found continued activity at Cuban facilities capable of supporting signals intelligence collection — the interception of electronic communications. CSIS says it has identified four such sites, several with suspected Chinese links.

Cuba's relationship with Russia is older and, according to the report, deepening further. Ford Maldonado points to expanding diplomatic and military ties, as well as reports of Cuban nationals fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. Estimates of how many vary widely: a State Department cable cited by Reuters in October 2025 put the number between 1,000 and 5,000. Cuba disputes this, saying it has prosecuted dozens of citizens for mercenary activity and denies sending any troops itself.

The Iran connection is the weakest link in the report by the author's own admission. "There wasn't that much substance that I could find," Ford Maldonado said, adding that Tehran's role appears limited mostly to influence operations rather than direct military cooperation.

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Independent Reporting Adds Weight — and Nuance

Several of the report's underlying concerns are backed by reporting well beyond AFPI itself. U.S. intelligence assessments cited by Axios in May 2026 found that Cuba has received over 300 Russian- and Iranian-supplied attack drones since 2023, and that the CIA has since set up a dedicated task force focused on the island. The Trump administration's own January 2026 executive order formally labeled Cuba an "unusual and extraordinary threat," citing alleged Chinese intelligence cooperation and Russian signals activity.

Not everyone agrees the threat is as sweeping as officials suggest. Some analysts have pushed back on parts of the broader narrative linking Cuba to militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, arguing the evidence for a coordinated network is thinner than the political rhetoric implies. As with any single-source intelligence claim, healthy skepticism is warranted until more evidence becomes public.

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A Government Running Out of Power — Literally

While the security debate plays out in Washington, ordinary Cubans are living through what independent monitors call one of the worst crises in the country's modern history. Cuba's national grid has collapsed multiple times in 2026 alone, including two nationwide blackouts within a single day in early August, according to Reuters and Al Jazeera. Power cuts in some provinces now stretch beyond 20 hours daily.

A July 2026 Human Rights Watch investigation documented severe shortages of food and medicine, prolonged blackouts and worsening water access across the island. HRW attributes the crisis to a mix of factors: decades of centralized economic mismanagement, long-standing U.S. trade restrictions, the pandemic-era collapse of tourism, and — more recently — tightened U.S. oil sanctions imposed after Washington moved against Cuba's key supplier, Venezuela, earlier this year.

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Pressure Versus Suffering: The Policy Dilemma

This is where the report runs into its central tension. Tougher U.S. sanctions are meant to squeeze the Cuban government. But critics argue that when an economy is already in freefall, additional pressure risks deepening civilian hardship rather than forcing political change.

In June 2026, United Nations-appointed independent human rights experts called for the sanctions to be lifted, warning they were endangering Cubans' access to basic goods and services.

Ford Maldonado rejects that framing. "Maximum pressure isn't harming the Cuban people, it's harming their regime," she said, arguing that 67 years of Communist Party rule — not U.S. policy — bears responsibility for the island's suffering.

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What Washington Might Do Next

Notably, the report does not call for new U.S. military bases in the region. Instead, it recommends expanded access agreements, overflight rights and stronger security partnerships with regional allies — described by Ford Maldonado as building "permanent and persistent" American capability near Cuba without a permanent troop presence.

Whether the Trump administration adopts these specific recommendations remains to be seen. What is clear from independent reporting is that Cuba's dual crisis — a collapsing economy at home and deepening ties to U.S. adversaries abroad — is unlikely to resolve on its own, and will keep drawing scrutiny from Washington regardless of which risk policymakers choose to prioritize.

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Sources:

1. Al Jazeera – "Cuba's power grid collapses again despite restoration efforts" (August 2026): https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/3/grid-failure-plunges-cuba-into-nationwide-blackout
2. CBC News – "More misery for Cubans as power grid fails again amid summertime heat" (August 2026): https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cuba-challenges-august-2026-grid-failure-9.7296412
3. CNN – "Storms disrupt Cuba's power restoration" (August 2026): https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/americas/cuba-blackout-electrical-grid-collapse-intl-hnk
4. FDD (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) – "Reported U.S. Intelligence Notes Threat From Cuba's Russian and Iranian Drone Stockpile" (May 2026): https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/05/18/reported-u-s-intelligence-notes-threat-from-cubas-russian-and-iranian-drone-stockpile/
5. The Libertarian Institute – "Cuba Crisis: Assessing the Claims Against Havana" (critical counter-perspective): https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/cuba-crisis-assessing-the-claims-against-havana/
6. PBS NewsHour / Associated Press – "Cuba reports island-wide blackout as country struggles with energy crisis": https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/cuba-reports-island-wide-blackout-as-country-struggles-with-energy-crisis

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