China Nearly Doubles Warship Presence Near Philippine Waters – and a Fighter Jet Buzzes a Patrol Plane

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A Sharp Jump in Just One Month

According to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), Chinese warships and coast guard cutters were sighted 101 times around four contested areas in September. Fox News reports that the figure was 56 in August and 48 in July. Philippine press coverage of the military's earlier briefing confirms the July number.

The largest group of ships, 39, stayed around Scarborough Shoal. Another 28 were seen near Thitu Island (called Pag-asa in the Philippines). A further 23 were near Second Thomas Shoal and 11 near Sabina Shoal.

AFP spokesman Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad described Chinese activity as illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive. He was careful, however, not to call the jump a new Chinese strategy. The military wants to study a longer period before drawing conclusions.

Fighter Jet Against a Propeller Plane

On Saturday, October 3, a Philippine Air Force Cessna C-208 was flying a routine patrol near Scarborough Shoal. The small propeller aircraft is unarmed. Two Chinese military aircraft approached it, including a Shenyang J-16 fighter.

Manila says the J-16 repeatedly flew close, crossed in front of and around the plane, and at one point sat in its wake. The wake is the turbulent air behind an aircraft, which can be dangerous for a small plane. The Philippine crew finished the mission and landed safely.

The AFP later released video of the encounter. It called the incident part of a recurring pattern of unsafe and coercive behavior against Philippine aircraft and ships on lawful missions.

Beijing Tells a Different Story

China's Southern Theater Command rejected the account. It claimed the Philippine aircraft had entered Chinese airspace over "Huangyan Dao," Beijing's name for Scarborough Shoal, without permission. According to the Chinese side, its forces tracked the plane and warned it to leave.

This claim runs against international law. Scarborough Shoal lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone (the waters up to 200 nautical miles from a country's coast, where it holds sole rights to resources). China has controlled access to the shoal since a 2012 standoff.

Why the Philippines Is Not Backing Down

Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea. In 2016, an international tribunal ruled that this claim has no legal basis. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rejected the ruling and has ignored it ever since.

Manila continues to patrol the waters and to supply its outposts. The most symbolic one is the BRP Sierra Madre, an old warship that the Philippines deliberately ran aground at Second Thomas Shoal in 1999. A small group of Filipino soldiers lives aboard. According to Fox News, Chinese ships tried to block a resupply mission to the ship just days before the air incident. This detail could not be confirmed by a second source, so treat it with care.

Why Washington Is Watching

The Philippines is a treaty ally of the United States. Under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, Washington has repeatedly said that an armed attack on Philippine forces, aircraft or public vessels, including in the South China Sea, would trigger American obligations.

The incidents come during a period of calmer talks between the U.S. and China. Fox News reports that President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping stressed stability during Xi's recent state visit to Washington. Beijing's behavior at sea, however, shows little sign of a softer line.

What to Watch Next

The key question is whether September was a one-time spike or the start of a lasting build-up. Manila has said it will wait for more data. If the numbers stay high, resupply missions and routine patrols will face more pressure, and the risk of a serious accident grows.

A crash or collision between aircraft or ships could quickly pull in Washington. For now, the Philippines says it will keep flying and sailing in its own waters.

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Sources

1. Fox News – "Chinese military activity nearly doubles around key US ally in disputed waters": https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chinese-military-activity-nearly-doubles-around-key-us-ally-disputed-waters
2. Daily Tribune (Philippines) – "AFP cites dangerous jet intercept, Chinese ship surge" (Oct. 6, 2026): https://tribune.net.ph/2026/10/06/afp-cites-dangerous-jet-intercept-chinese-ship-surge
3. The Maritime Executive – "Philippines Accuses PLA of Unsafe Close Encounter Over South China Sea" (Oct. 5, 2026): https://maritime-executive.com/article/philippines-accuses-pla-of-unsafe-close-encounter-over-south-china-sea
4. FlightGlobal – "Chinese J-16 involved in dangerous intercept of Philippine Grand Caravan" (Oct. 5, 2026): https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/2026/10/chinese-j-16-in-dangerous-intercept-of-philippine-grand-caravan/
5. Manila Bulletin – "PAF patrol plane completes mission despite risky moves by Chinese military aircraft over Bajo de Masinloc" (Oct. 4, 2026): https://mb.com.ph/2026/10/04/paf-patrol-plane-completes-mission-despite-risky-moves-by-chinese-military-aircraft-over-bajo-de-masinloc-afp
6. Daily Tribune – "AFP tracks 48 Chinese coast guard, naval ships at WPS" (Aug. 4, 2026): https://tribune.net.ph/2026/08/04/afp-tracks-48-chinese-coast-guard-naval-ships-at-wps

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