Xi Times 3? It’s a Done Deal
CommentaryXi Jinping is transiting through shoal waters in his quest for a third five-year term as “paramount leader.” The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) convened on Oct. 16 in Beijing. Party congresses are held every five years and provide a glimpse into the rigid workings of the CCP, as well as its priorities for the future. In this congress, three main topics have been incorporated into the carefully choreographed schedule. The first major event was a presentation of the Chinese equivalent of a U.S. presidential State of the Union Address by Xi at the beginning of the congress. His speech consisted of a dreary dissertation on his past accomplishments, future goals, and priorities leading to the 100th-anniversary celebration of the founding of the “People’s Republic of China” in 1949, and his usual favorite topics folded into his vision for China’s future (an update of his “Chinese Dream”). China Daily quoted him as saying, “The essential requirements are upholding the leadership of the [CCP] and socialism with Chinese characteristics, pursuing high-quality development, developing whole-process people’s democracy, enriching the people’s cultural lives, achieving common prosperity for all, promoting harmony between humanity and nature, building a human community with a shared future, and creating a new form of human advancement.” We’ve heard Xi pontificate on those topics many times before! He also included remarks on communist China’s “core interest,” such as the inevitable annexation of Taiwan. After claiming that “the situation in Hong Kong has achieved a major turning point from chaos to governance,” he declared that the CCP continues to stand firm in strengthening national sovereignty “in the face of separatist activities of the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and the severe provocations of external forces interfering in Taiwan affairs.” He also said the CCP has an overall strategy for “resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era,” leading to the “complete reunification” of the country. In short, Xi was signaling that “Taiwan is next,” for all practical purposes. A man walks past a propaganda poster welcoming the 20th Communist Party Congress meeting along a street in Beijing on Sept. 21, 2022. (Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images) The bottom line of the speech was that there were no real surprises, and Xi appears to be in firm control of the congress, the CCP, and the country at large. Some observers thought he might have announced a relaxation of the CCP’s draconian “zero-COVID policy,” but that didn’t happen. [Note: The delegates will have an opportunity to “tweak” his report by making change recommendations developed during various working groups throughout the week, but any changes are expected to be perfunctory and insignificant.] The other two major events of the week include the following. The “election” by the more than 2,000 delegates of “paramount leader” Xi to a third five-year term as general secretary of the CCP is expected. The election will be a farce, as zero “no” votes or abstentions will be permitted. This is a true reflection of “democracy with Chinese characteristics.” [Note: He also holds two other titles: chairman of the Central Military Commission and “president” of communist China. The former position will likely be extended to him during this congress.] The “election” of the new Central Committee—the rest of the CCP leadership team—that will govern the nation for the next five years is also scheduled for the congress. The process will be perfunctory, as Xi and his allies in the Politburo Standing Committee have doubtlessly already made the 370-odd selections (which include 170 alternates), and the congress will merely rubber-stamp those choices. He’s responsible for administering the vast CCP bureaucracy, including the various ministries, departments, commissions, and offices that govern and regulate the Chinese economy. No public input is needed (or desired), as the Politburo will make that choice in secret—more “democracy with Chinese characteristics.” Another administrative task will be executed during the congress, this one consisting of developing and approving an amendment to the CCP charter that will authorize Xi’s third term as general secretary. The charter has heretofore limited Chinese leaders to two five-year terms. That amendment will also likely enshrine some of his ideological malarkey to guide Marxist development. To Xi or Not to Xi For a variety of reasons, over the past year, there has been much speculation in world media about whether Xi will, in fact, be “elected” to serve an unprecedented third term or will be replaced because of his failure to resolve—while actually exacerbating—significant problems that persist in China. China watchers have pointed to a considerable list of seemingly intractable problems, including a long-term financial and debt crisis (getting ready to explode), a declining demand in the domestic res
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Commentary
Xi Jinping is transiting through shoal waters in his quest for a third five-year term as “paramount leader.”
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) convened on Oct. 16 in Beijing. Party congresses are held every five years and provide a glimpse into the rigid workings of the CCP, as well as its priorities for the future. In this congress, three main topics have been incorporated into the carefully choreographed schedule.
The first major event was a presentation of the Chinese equivalent of a U.S. presidential State of the Union Address by Xi at the beginning of the congress. His speech consisted of a dreary dissertation on his past accomplishments, future goals, and priorities leading to the 100th-anniversary celebration of the founding of the “People’s Republic of China” in 1949, and his usual favorite topics folded into his vision for China’s future (an update of his “Chinese Dream”).
China Daily quoted him as saying, “The essential requirements are upholding the leadership of the [CCP] and socialism with Chinese characteristics, pursuing high-quality development, developing whole-process people’s democracy, enriching the people’s cultural lives, achieving common prosperity for all, promoting harmony between humanity and nature, building a human community with a shared future, and creating a new form of human advancement.”
We’ve heard Xi pontificate on those topics many times before!
He also included remarks on communist China’s “core interest,” such as the inevitable annexation of Taiwan. After claiming that “the situation in Hong Kong has achieved a major turning point from chaos to governance,” he declared that the CCP continues to stand firm in strengthening national sovereignty “in the face of separatist activities of the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and the severe provocations of external forces interfering in Taiwan affairs.” He also said the CCP has an overall strategy for “resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era,” leading to the “complete reunification” of the country.
In short, Xi was signaling that “Taiwan is next,” for all practical purposes.
The bottom line of the speech was that there were no real surprises, and Xi appears to be in firm control of the congress, the CCP, and the country at large. Some observers thought he might have announced a relaxation of the CCP’s draconian “zero-COVID policy,” but that didn’t happen.
[Note: The delegates will have an opportunity to “tweak” his report by making change recommendations developed during various working groups throughout the week, but any changes are expected to be perfunctory and insignificant.]
The other two major events of the week include the following.
The “election” by the more than 2,000 delegates of “paramount leader” Xi to a third five-year term as general secretary of the CCP is expected. The election will be a farce, as zero “no” votes or abstentions will be permitted. This is a true reflection of “democracy with Chinese characteristics.” [Note: He also holds two other titles: chairman of the Central Military Commission and “president” of communist China. The former position will likely be extended to him during this congress.]
The “election” of the new Central Committee—the rest of the CCP leadership team—that will govern the nation for the next five years is also scheduled for the congress. The process will be perfunctory, as Xi and his allies in the Politburo Standing Committee have doubtlessly already made the 370-odd selections (which include 170 alternates), and the congress will merely rubber-stamp those choices. He’s responsible for administering the vast CCP bureaucracy, including the various ministries, departments, commissions, and offices that govern and regulate the Chinese economy. No public input is needed (or desired), as the Politburo will make that choice in secret—more “democracy with Chinese characteristics.”
Another administrative task will be executed during the congress, this one consisting of developing and approving an amendment to the CCP charter that will authorize Xi’s third term as general secretary. The charter has heretofore limited Chinese leaders to two five-year terms. That amendment will also likely enshrine some of his ideological malarkey to guide Marxist development.
To Xi or Not to Xi
For a variety of reasons, over the past year, there has been much speculation in world media about whether Xi will, in fact, be “elected” to serve an unprecedented third term or will be replaced because of his failure to resolve—while actually exacerbating—significant problems that persist in China.
China watchers have pointed to a considerable list of seemingly intractable problems, including a long-term financial and debt crisis (getting ready to explode), a declining demand in the domestic residential housing market (possibly due to social changes resulting in fewer Chinese marriages), a wave of mortgage boycotts at 340 locations in 190 Chinese cities, a declining birth rate (due considerably to a government-dictated one- then two- and now three-child policy), a crackdown on the Chinese tech industry (the most vibrant sector of the Chinese economy).
They’ve also noted the plunging profits of local state-owned enterprises, the continuing gaokao conundrum, the international focus on the CCP’s genocide against Uyghurs in Xinjiang, rising violent crime and gang activity in central China, the inability of domestic food production to feed China’s 1.4 billion people (China is the largest importer of foodstuffs in the world), youth unemployment (ages 19 to 24) setting a new record at 19.3 percent, foreign condemnation of Beijing’s implementation of its national security law in Hong Kong, an increase in foreign businesses exiting China, and the general disruption of the Chinese economy due to the arbitrary lockdowns and quarantines associated with the CCP’s draconian “zero-COVID” policy.
Gordon Chang, a preeminent China expert, has even predicted that “China’s economy is collapsing” because of a combination of the aforementioned factors.
Then there are the periodic protests over the past couple of years by the following people: farmers in Guangdong Province, Shanghai and Shenzhen residents protesting COVID-19 lockdowns, bank depositors in Zhengzhou in Henan Province, and anti-Xi protesters just last week in Beijing.
Based on the above, is Xi in political trouble, and is there any chance he’ll step aside in favor of a consensus replacement at the 20th Party Congress? After all, factional infighting is standard practice within the Chinese communist leadership, as whoever leads determines patronage jobs and monetizes positions within the government bureaucracies. The factional infighting is speculated upon in this Oct. 8 video from China Uncensored, which provides a historical summary of CCP factional infighting and argues that there’s a continuing political struggle between the political camps of Xi and former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin.
There was even a Twitter post from an account in India in September that claimed Xi was displaced during a military coup: “Xi is rumored to have undergone a military coup. #PLA special forces gathered at Shenyang Military airport under the orders of Li Qiaoming.” Newsweek picked up on that post in an article, with editors possibly wishing and hoping that the rumor was true. Alas, it was a false rumor, and the preparations for the congress proceeded without incident or interruption to the present day.
Concluding Thoughts
The likelihood of Xi being displaced from power during the CCP’s 20th Congress is practically zero. The CCP—like all communist parties—is a conservative entity that abhors major and rapid changes. The Party seeks continuity, legitimacy, and perpetual political control above all things. Party congresses are carefully orchestrated events that are intended to persuade domestic and foreign audiences of the legitimacy of the CCP’s rule, and a public power struggle—especially a major change in CCP leadership—would expose the farce that is “democracy with Chinese characteristics” to everyone, as well as damage communist China’s prestige on the world stage.
Xi’s third term is a done deal. The Congress will rubber-stamp Xi’s updated “Chinese Dream.” And the rest of the world will determine whether pushback on that dream or accommodation is in order.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
