With Power Waning, Xi Jinping Loses Influence in US-China Talks: Analysts
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After a 14-day absence from public view, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reappeared on June 4 to host Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko at his official residence in Beijing. The meeting was unusually subdued, with both Chinese and Belarusian media describing it as “family-like” and informal. In contrast to standard state visits, it received limited media coverage, underscoring its low-profile nature.
In an interview with The Epoch Times on June 3, Wu Zuolai, a U.S.-based scholar and political commentator, offered a detailed analysis of what he sees as significant changes to Xi’s standing within the CCP.
According to Wu, Xi’s core leadership position has been notably weakened since the CCP’s Third Plenum meeting in July 2024, with a new internal counterweight emerging—led by reformist and moderate factions.
“There appears to be a temporary central group that has effectively sidelined Xi’s core authority,” Wu said.
He suggested that this reformist force likely draws strength from the political legacy of retired leaders such as Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao, with support from select members of the Politburo and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country’s top advisory body.
“Look at the ongoing personnel reshuffling—it’s coming from all directions, not just Xi’s loyalists. Together, they form a diverse network of internal checks and balances,” he noted. “Many of those he previously promoted have been removed, suggesting a systematic effort to dismantle the foundations of Xi’s long-term rule.”
Wu described the shift not as open defiance, but as a quiet rebalancing of power, driven by personnel changes and policy adjustments aimed at curbing Xi’s cult of personality and policy extremism.
During Xi’s absence, other Politburo Standing Committee members—including Premier Li Qiang—continued to appear at official events. Further fueling speculation was that the CCP provided no information on whether its routine Politburo meeting, typically held at the end of each month, took place in May.
Several analysts offered similar assessments.
Political commentator Tang Jingyuan noted that the muted state media coverage during Xi’s absence is telling.
“If Xi were still in full control, the propaganda machine would be working overtime to reaffirm his authority—standard practice in China,” Tang told The Epoch Times. “Instead, he vanished from public view for more than 10 days, and coverage of him only decreased. That strongly suggests something significant is happening at the top of the Party.”
Gordon Chang, a China expert and senior fellow at a U.S. conservative think tank, said Xi’s potentially diminished authority could affect the success of trade talks between Xi and U.S. President Donald Trump.
CCP’s Internal Complexity
Wu cautioned that President Trump’s strategy of seeking direct dialogue with Xi to resolve bilateral tensions may underestimate the internal complexities within the CCP today.According to Wu, Trump likely still sees Xi as the primary obstacle in U.S.-China negotiations and appears unaware of the significant political realignments currently unfolding in Beijing.
“In the current political environment, Washington may need to consider bold, unprecedented approaches to deal with China,” he said. “For example, it could move to admit Taiwan to the United Nations.”
‘Two Competing Lines Within the System’
China has seen a flurry of unusual personnel changes in recent months. The CCP replaced its top official in charge of Taiwan affairs, as well as its senior official overseeing Hong Kong. On June 2, authorities announced the death of Xu Qiliang, a top military commander, prompting speculation on social media about the suspicious circumstances surrounding his passing. At the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue held from May 30 to June 1, 2025, China sent its lowest-ranking delegate in years—a move widely interpreted as an unusual signal in military diplomacy.According to Wu, these developments point to an escalating internal power struggle reminiscent of the factional infighting that surrounded the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989.
“There are now two competing lines within the system, just like in 1989 before the Tiananmen Massacre,” Wu said. “The outcome is still undecided, leading to unusual personnel appointments.”
The massacre, which took place on June 4, 1989, saw Chinese troops violently suppress a student-led pro-democracy movement, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries.
Political commentator Li Yanming agrees that the multiple unusual developments suggest that Xi’s two-week disappearance was highly unusual. He believes the CCP’s top leadership, through various actions and media signals, is sending a message both within the party and to the outside world, indicating a move to diminish Xi’s authority.
A Critical Moment for China—and US Strategy
Wu emphasized that the coming months will be crucial in determining China’s future, as well as the direction of its domestic and foreign policies.For the United States, Wu believes that economic sanctions or dialogue alone are unlikely to shift the CCP’s strategic thinking. Instead, he reiterated the need for a more assertive approach—one that includes openly supporting Taiwanese sovereignty and applying coordinated international pressure on Beijing.
“This approach may deepen divisions within the CCP, creating an opportunity for internal reform to take root,” he said.
