US Geopolitical Chess: Strategies Against China, Russia, and Iran

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Apr 7, 2025 - 09:55 Updated: Apr 7, 2025 - 00:38
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US Geopolitical Chess: Strategies Against China, Russia, and Iran

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Commentary

As the United States brokers a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, the Trump administration’s unique strategies toward China, Russia, and Iran are becoming more apparent. At the same time, the administration is redefining alliances while urging partners to step up their defense instead of depending on America’s traditional generosity.

This multifaceted strategy aims to reshape the global order by isolating the three adversaries of the United States, with the ultimate goal of delivering a decisive blow to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

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Russia Strategy

President Donald Trump is focused on quickly resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict by providing Moscow with a way out while maintaining pressure on the CCP, which remains his main target. After taking office, he shifted U.S. policy toward Russia, incorporating a mix of incentives and some level of coercion, with a stronger emphasis on the former. This strategy has yielded positive results, initiating discussions for a cease-fire.

On Jan. 22, just days into his presidency, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform: “I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous war! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with!” 

The Kremlin responded swiftly. On Feb. 12, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone, agreeing to start negotiations right away to halt the conflict, breaking a diplomatic stalemate.

On Feb. 18, the U.S. and Russian teams met in Saudi Arabia, resuming normal engagement and laying the groundwork for cease-fire discussions. By March 18, a second call between Trump and Putin focused on halting attacks on energy infrastructure. This initiated technical talks regarding a maritime cease-fire in the Black Sea, a broader truce, and a lasting peace deal.

On March 25, the White House detailed separate U.S. meetings with Russia and Ukraine, securing safe Black Sea navigation and a mutual pledge to spare energy infrastructure. The United States also committed to aiding Russia’s agricultural and fertilizer exports while helping Ukraine recover detained civilians and children displaced by Russia.

The next steps will likely address issues related to territorial borders, peacekeeping, sanctions relief, and security guarantees. As long as Moscow is cooperative, Trump will prefer to offer incentives. However, if Russia adopts a more rigid position, he is prepared to walk away, compelling the Kremlin to consider its alternatives—especially in light of potential betrayal by Beijing. Trump’s strategy focuses on creating a rift between Russia and China while simultaneously applying pressure on both nations.

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China Strategy

Regarding the CCP, Trump employs a dual approach of intense pressure and selective engagement. 

Tariffs lead the charge. Citing China’s failure to stem fentanyl flows into the United States, he imposed an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports effective on March 4. 

Moreover, G7 ministers, during a meeting in Canada on March 14, issued a statement that hardened their position on the Chinese regime’s trade practices, military expansion, and regional tensions. Notably, the joint statement did not reference the “One China” policy, indicating support for Taiwan’s participation in global organizations. Washington likely influenced this shift.

These actions rattled the CCP, yet Trump had sought to engage with Beijing.

In December, the U.S. president invited CCP leader Xi Jinping to his inauguration; however, Xi declined the invitation and sent his deputy, Han Zheng, in his place. The idea of a meeting between Xi and Trump generated significant interest, but it appeared that the White House was merely trying to gauge reactions and test the waters.
On March 22, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) visited Beijing, where he discussed the issue of fentanyl with Vice Premier He Lifeng and suggested the possibility of future high-level talks. Later, Daines also met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who told the United States to opt for “dialogue” rather than “confrontation.”

Yet Beijing’s actions suggest resistance. On March 24, it enacted an anti-foreign sanctions law, signaling defiance. 

Washington acted quickly. The next day, the United States added 42 Chinese entities to its export restriction list and imposed a 25 percent tariff on all goods imported from those countries that purchase Venezuelan oil, essentially halting China’s purchases.
Beijing remains resolute in its stance against the United States. A virtual meeting on March 26 between U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng resulted in no progress. Additionally, Li Ka-shing’s sale of Panama Canal port rights to BlackRock on March 4 drew late criticism from Beijing, but this response came too late to be of any significance.
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Iran Strategy

Trump has not overlooked Iran, especially following the country’s naval drills with China and Russia on March 9.

The U.S. president sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March, seeking to negotiate a deal to restrain Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.

However, Khamenei rejected direct negotiations with the United States over the issue, saying, “Some foreign governments and domineering figures insist on negotiations, while their goal is not to resolve issues but to exert control and impose their own agendas.”
Trump followed up with a social media post on March 17, vowing “great force” against Houthi retaliation and holding Iran accountable for arming the terrorist group. Two days later, he demanded Iran halt supplies “immediately,” predicting the Houthis’s swift defeat.

The strikes served a dual purpose: they sent a message to Beijing and Moscow. Following a meeting on March 14 in Beijing that involved representatives from China, Russia, and Iran discussing Tehran’s nuclear program, Trump’s escalation with the Houthis undermined Beijing’s mediation efforts. As U.S.–Russia–Ukraine discussions progressed in Saudi Arabia, it highlighted Trump’s willingness to pivot against Moscow if necessary.

Trump is playing a different game with China, Russia, and Iran to divide them, aiming to hit the CCP the hardest.

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The Bigger Picture

In a chaotic, uncertain world, Trump effectively utilizes every available resource. The United States must bring all its resources together to confront the CCP. The sooner America’s allies and partners understand this strategy and offer their support, the faster the CCP will weaken and potentially collapse.

Once the CCP falls, Russia will lack the means to sustain its war efforts, Iran will find itself without a backer, and terrorist organizations will struggle to survive. Only then can global stability be restored, the international order reestablished, and nations begin to enjoy a peaceful existence.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

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