Uncertainty Marks the Sixth Russia-China Alliance After Five Previous Treaty Breaches

As the entire western world united with Ukraine against the ongoing Russian invasion, Chinese dictator Xi Jinping’s state visit to Russia raised concerns about whether China and Russia are allying against the entire West. Historically, China and Russia have never been genuine allies, from Tsarist Russia to the Soviet Union and today’s Russia.

Xi Positions China Against the West in his Russia Visit

On March 20, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for dinner.

Before that, each leader had published an article touting “China-Russian friendship.” The CCP’s mouthpiece newspaper, People’s Daily, said that Putin claimed Russia-China relations had reached a historical peak and that he called Xi “Comrade Xi Jinping,” which is a title used between Communist Party members in China and in the former Soviet Union.

Xi Jinping reiterated Beijing’s position on the war between Russia and Ukraine, claiming he wanted a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis instead of the Cold War mentality and unilateral sanctions. Xi declared that China is willing to play a constructive role in promoting a political solution to the Ukrainian conflict. Putin responded to Xi’s “political solution” by saying that Russia supports China’s constructive role in the Ukraine topic.

On March 18, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, in his speech in Russia, Xi Jinping did not mention anything about Russia invading neighboring countries. Instead, he emphasized the historical significance of the Russia-China partnership.

This is a sensitive time for Xi to visit Russia and make such a statement. It is believed that the CCP has ignored international condemnation and supported Putin. The Chinese regime is seeking an alliance to counter the West.

China-Russia Relations Viewed as an Alliance of  Convenience

On March 21, Xinhua, the CCP’s state media, published a “Sino-Russia joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era.” It is widely believed that the essence of the meeting between Xi and Putin is that the two dictatorships need each other and have more mutual interests than sincerity. The political situation forced such a brief handshake between the leaders.

Chinese-American political commentator Shi Shan suggests that Xi Jinping’s decision to visit Russia attempts to change former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s “Hide our strength and bide our time” policy on the international stage. Instead, Xi has chosen to challenge the United States directly and to become more confrontational globally.

Shi said: “The CCP may not really want Russia to be strong, but rather it wants the war to last so it can weaken Russia, resulting in Russia relying heavily on the CCP for economic and geopolitical support. The CCP also does not want to see Russia defeated in Ukraine, which could make Ukraine more pro-West. The fact that Xi Jinping rushed to Russia just a week after the CCP’s ‘two sessions’ reflects this concern.”

The power struggle between China and Russia has reversed due to the Russia-Ukraine War. China has emerged as the “boss” or the more dominant power between the two, while Russia relies more on China’s support. Whether Russia can accept being a “junior partner” to the CCP remains to be seen.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby also cast doubt on the new Russia-China alliance and suggested that Russia has become the “junior partner” in this relationship.

Historically, China-Russia Alliances Ended Badly for China

During Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia, the article “300 years of Sino-Russian relations: 5 alliances and 5 betrayals” circulated on Chinese social media, but the Chinese censors quickly blocked the posts.

Xiang Yang, the author of the book “China Duel,” briefly summarized five alliances between China and Russia throughout history and their respective outcomes.

The first alliance occurred in the 17th century when the Tsarist Russian Empire rapidly expanded its territory but feared instability in the Far East. They sent an envoy to sign a non-aggression pact with the Manchu-led Qing Dynasty in China in 1654. However, at the end of Russia’s western expansion, it broke the agreement and invaded northeastern China. The Manchurian Emperor declared war and defeated the Russians. The two sides eventually signed the Treaty of Nerchinsk to solve the territorial disputes.

The second happened during the late Qing Dynasty when Russia wanted to build a railroad in the far east to modern-day Vladivostok. The two countries signed a treaty of mutual assistance. However, Russia broke the alliance and occupied Chinese territory, forcing China to sign unequal treaties that ceded 1.2 million square miles of Chinese territory. Those territories remain part of Russia today.

The third time occurred in 1919 when the first Soviet ambassador to China, Lev Karakhan, was authorized by Lenin to issue the “Soviet Offer to China of 1919,” which stated that “The unequal treaties from Tsarist Russia should be abolished and everything that had been taken from China should be returned to the Chinese people.” The Republic of China President Sun Yat-sen then established a military-political alliance with the Soviet Union. However, the coalition eventually failed because the Soviet Union supported the Chinese Communists to subvert the Chinese Republic and supported the independence of Outer Mongolia from China.

The fourth instance was in 1945 when the Republic of China leader Chiang Kai-shek signed the “Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance” to get the Soviet Union to send troops to northeast China to fight against the Japanese Empire in exchange for a referendum on the independence of Outer Mongolia. However, Japan surrendered to the allied forces the day after the treaty was signed. The Soviet Union sent troops to northeast China regardless and took the opportunity to occupy Lushun City and Dalian in Liaoning Province, which were returned in 1955 to the Communist regime.

The fifth incident was in 1950 when the CCP and the Soviet Union signed the “Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance, and Mutual Assistance.” However, the relationship deteriorated in the 1960s, and an armed conflict at the border between the two nations ended the alliance.

Historically, Russia has broken treaties with China on five occasions. Yet, we are seeing China and Russia again allying. This sixth alliance between Russia and China to confront the United States and the western world is expected to be very unpredictable.