Commentary
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A new national defense theory suggests that if and when Beijing moves on Taiwan, it may enlist Moscow in a coordinated assault designed to stretch U.S. forces across
two theaters of war.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has issued a warning that if the Chinese regime moves to invade Taiwan, it will likely
coordinate with Russia to launch simultaneous attacks on NATO territory in Europe, creating a problematic two-front war scenario for the United States and its allies.
China and Russia formalized their “
no limits partnership” in February 2022, just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, Beijing has quietly supported Moscow’s war effort despite claiming neutrality. This deepening alliance reinforces the likelihood that China would coordinate with Russia in any major military action, including a potential invasion of Taiwan.
According to Rutte, Chinese leader Xi Jinping would likely ask Russian President Vladimir Putin to launch an attack on NATO territory to divert U.S. attention while China moves on Taiwan. This would force the United States into a two-front war against the world’s leading authoritarian powers. As U.S. forces shift to the Pacific, Russia could exploit the moment to strike NATO’s vulnerable flanks, such as the Baltic states, Svalbard, or other strategic areas, seeking quick gains before NATO can respond.
Xi is widely believed to be
targeting 2027 for a potential invasion of Taiwan, a date that marks the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army and a key milestone in the Chinese regime’s military modernization program, which aims to rival U.S. capabilities by 2035.
However, if the PLA is not yet prepared to face American forces alone, Xi may seek Russian support as a force multiplier to compensate for remaining gaps. A formal alliance would merge two of the world’s largest militaries, combining massive manpower with extensive land, sea, and air capabilities.
Together, according to Global Firepower, their naval forces
comprise 1,173 warships, including four aircraft carriers, four helicopter carriers, and a powerful fleet of 124 submarines, many of which are capable of launching nuclear missiles. China has the world’s largest navy by ship count, while Russia has extensive expertise in submarine warfare.
In the air, their combined forces comprise at least 7,600 aircraft, and on land, they field over 12,550 tanks and more than 18,000 artillery pieces. In addition, their combined merchant marine fleet comprises 11,224 ships, providing them with immense capacity to transport troops, supplies, and equipment across vast distances in support of military operations.
One of the most alarming developments is China’s rapidly growing nuclear arsenal. According to the Pentagon, China’s stockpile of operational nuclear warheads nearly tripled between 2020 and 2024, reaching approximately
600 warheads by 2025. It now holds the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states and is the only Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) signatory significantly expanding its stockpile.
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When combined with Russia’s arsenal, the threat becomes even more severe. Russia possesses around
4,309 nuclear warheads assigned to both strategic and non-strategic forces, with an additional 1,150 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, bringing its total inventory to roughly 5,459, according to Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Of these, approximately 1,477 are non-strategic nuclear weapons, including warheads deployed across naval forces, air forces, ground forces, and air defense systems.
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Key delivery platforms include the Iskander short-range ballistic missile, Kalibr cruise missile, various air-defense interceptors, and the Kinzhal hypersonic missile. In 2024, Russia also lowered its
nuclear posture threshold, meaning the level of provocation required under Russian law to justify a nuclear response has been reduced, further raising the stakes in any potential confrontation involving China and Russia.
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Facing two powerful, nuclear-armed adversaries on separate fronts would place the United States in an unenviable strategic position. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made a compelling case for shifting focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, describing it as America’s “
priority theater.” However, such a pivot depends on Europe taking greater responsibility for its own defense.
This is one reason U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a hard line on NATO, urging European countries to take a more active role in their own security, including raising defense spending to
5 percent of GDP.
As 2027 approaches, Western military planners are racing to prepare for simultaneous contingencies, reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank while the U.S. strengthens alliances in the Pacific, particularly with Japan and South Korea.
If the NATO secretary-general is correct, the fate of Taiwan and the world may hinge on Europe sufficiently rearming, allowing the United States to focus its efforts on countering communist China.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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