The Only Winner in Ukraine Is China

Commentary Last weekend, the G20 finance ministers adjourned without a joint statement because two of them, from Russia and China, refused to condemn “in the strongest terms” Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine. Beijing likewise abstained a few days earlier from a similar U.N. General Assembly resolution. Despite widespread global support for Ukraine, the Chinese Communist Party thinks it can attract European countries that senior diplomat Wang Yi perceives as malleable: Germany, France, Italy, and Hungary. With the latter, under Viktor Orbán, Beijing is actually making inroads. The CCP sees the war as beneficial, and as a distraction for the United States from China’s own territorial ambitions in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and northern India. A poll published by Morning Consult last week found strong beliefs among Chinese citizens that Russia’s war helps their country. Diplomatically, Beijing seeks to use the war as a pretext to expand its influence in the “Global South” by appearing as a neutral peacemaker. But, Beijing’s support of negotiations, when Russia still occupies large parts of Ukraine, effectively rewards Russia by pressuring Kyiv into concessions. That would pave the way for the CCP’s future planned aggression against Taiwan. Xi Jinping likely encouraged Vladimir Putin in their meeting just 20 days before the invasion. The two issued a joint statement expressing a “no-limits friendship” and “new era” of international relations, agreeing to $117.5 billion in oil, gas, and other deals that later mitigated the impact of sanctions. Beijing demonstrated ideological alignment with Russia within days of the invasion by blaming the United States, rationalizing it as a “legitimate” expression of Russian national security, and repeating Russian disinformation that the United States financed a network of secret bioweapon labs across Ukraine. Beijing didn’t fool Kyiv. “The only country who really benefits now from this … war in Ukraine, is China,” noted Ukraine’s presidential economic adviser Oleg Ustenko in March 2022, two weeks after the invasion. Zhang Jun, Permanent Representative of China, speaks during the U.N. Security Council meeting discussing the Russian and Ukraine conflict at the United Nations Headquarters in New York City on March 11, 2022. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) Russia’s pariah status and subjection to sanctions make it ever more reliant on Beijing. Militarily, the two countries join for up to five major exercises annually. While the Biden administration repeatedly asserts that Beijing has not yet sent military materiel for Russia’s war in Ukraine, China has in fact supplied jet fighter parts, jamming technology, satellite imagery for weapons targeting, and dual-use items such as computer chips and civilian drones that have reached the front lines. Last month, Beijing released an anti-American manifesto titled “US Hegemony and Its Perils.” It blames the United States for Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution, and claims that in Ukraine and other countries, “the United States is repeating its old tactics of waging proxy, low-intensity, and drone wars.” The CCP’s support for Moscow comes at a price, including major discounts on oil and diplomatic subordination, as most recently illustrated by Beijing’s now easy diplomatic access to Belarus. Kyiv cautiously hopes that Beijing might stop Putin’s war. But, the best one might realistically expect is that China opposes Russian nuclear threats, which could leverage the CCP into increasing conventional arms exports to Russia. Beijing’s new peace proposal shows how the CCP favors Russia. It does not call for the withdrawal of Russian troops, instead denouncing alliance “blocs” like NATO and the use of “unilateral” sanctions. However, Moscow quickly rejected even this pro-Russian proposal, saying it did not recognize “new territorial realities.” President Joe Biden responded to China’s plan by saying Beijing’s involvement was “not rational” and that the plan only benefited Russia. He warned that if the CCP supported Moscow’s brutality with weapons shipments then U.S. corporations would leave China. With no negotiated solution in sight, the war’s outcome still hinges on international sanctions and battlefield assets. On Feb. 26, Biden announced another $2.5 billion in aid to Ukraine, bringing the total to $113 billion. Two days earlier, the United States sanctioned over 200 entities linked to Russia’s war, including prohibitions on five Chinese groups from acquiring U.S. technologies. NATO and the G7 responded with additional sanctions and threats, some against Beijing. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine warned of a “third world war” if China supplies Russia with weapons. The risks are dire. Yet, Ukraine’s partners cannot allow military support or appeasement of Moscow. Beijing must be held to account for any support it gives, including through non-military trade. New territory for Russia would incentivize further inva