The CCP’s Military Exercises and Carrier Maneuvers Signal the Regime’s Taiwan Invasion Strategy
Udumbara
Forming a natural barrier with China, the first island chain encompasses an area running from Japan southeast to Taiwan, the Philippines, and Borneo. The second island chain, located further east, includes parts of Japan and reaches to Guam and the islands of Micronesia.
At a press conference on June 12, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said that Chinese J-15 fighter jets, launched from the CCP’s Shandong aircraft carrier, chased Japanese patrol aircraft and flew as close as 148 feet on June 7 and 8. The Japanese government expressed “serious concern” to the Chinese ambassador and asked the Chinese side to “strictly prevent the recurrence.”
However, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian dismissed Japan’s concerns and accused Japanese vessels and aircraft of closing in on the CCP’s “normal military activities.”
Such military activities by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) not only pose a political threat to Japan but also hint at the CCP’s possible naval strategy in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In a combat scenario, the carriers will likely operate in a fleet of warships. The CCP may use both carrier fleets to delay aid to Taiwan from the United States and allied forces.
The Old Vessels’ Fate
Although the Liaoning and Shandong were both commissioned quite recently, in 2012 and 2019, respectively. Both carriers are based on Soviet technology. Japan’s Ministry of Defense has described the ships as “Kuznetsov-class,” a type of aircraft carrier which was first designed and built by the Soviet Union.Both carriers fall significantly behind the CCP’s newest Fujian-class carrier, which appears strikingly similar to U.S. aircraft carriers.
Last month, the CCP’s propaganda mouthpiece the Global Times reported that China’s third and newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, was holding intensive sea trials. The Fujian has been described as the country’s first electromagnetic catapult-equipped aircraft carrier, which mirrors America’s most advanced Ford-class aircraft carriers.
The Fujian signals the CCP’s abandonment of its previous Soviet-style carrier designs. This renders the Liaoning and Shandong carriers outdated and less advanced.
Seizing Tactical Positions
According to Japan’s Ministry of Defense, between May 26 and May 27, the Liaoning carrier passed through the waters between Okinawa Main Island and Miyako-jima Island into the Pacific. This has been a tactical position for the U.S. Navy in a hypothetical conflict, enabling control of the Bashi Channel and support for Taiwan. The Liaoning’s maneuvers were likely simulating a contest with U.S. carriers for this optimal tactical position.On June 7, the Liaoning reappeared between the east of Iwo Jima and the west of Minamitorishima, or Marcus Island, in the second island chain. On the same day, the Shandong reappeared about 340 mi. southeast of Okinawa.
This was likely a rehearsal of a contest with U.S. carrier fleets for tactical positioning. The two Chinese carriers simulated a scenario where they were forcing the U.S. Navy to address threats from two directions. Aware of their Soviet-style carriers’ limited combat capabilities, the Chinese carriers likely aim not to confront the U.S. Navy head-on but to force them away from designated tactical positions or disrupt their planned operations in a potential conflict.
Chinese state media cheered the regime’s carrier exercises, claiming they had penetrated the second island chain and were able to “surround Guam.” The report emphasized the claim that the CCP’s navy has achieved “far seas capabilities” and is able to perform “joint combat operations.”
Simulating the Invasion of Taiwan
The CCP’s military exercises with the Liaoning and Shandong are a simulation of how the regime would deploy such Soviet-style carriers beyond the first island chain in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.The CCP’s ideal scenario in a Taiwan invasion is a “blitzkrieg,” where the Chinese military is able to overwhelm the island in a very short period of time before countries such as the United States and Japan are able to respond. The carrier fleets deployed beyond the first island chain would serve as “bait” or a distraction, in this case, to prevent any prompt response from Taiwan’s allies.
The CCP would not hesitate to sacrifice personnel and would not prioritize loss ratios or operational costs. In other words, sending a large number of naval personnel as cannon fodder is very likely a part of the CCP’s plan to invade Taiwan. Protecting the lives of service members or civilians is simply not a CCP priority since the regime is willing to risk mass casualties and destruction in order to achieve its goals.
On May 30, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth noted at a Singapore security summit that China is “credibly preparing to use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.” He warned that any attempt by China to conquer neighboring Taiwan would result in “devastating consequences” for the entire world.
