Is Communist China an Existential Threat to South Korea?

Commentary

South Korea is an export-rich country.

Korean pop, more commonly referred to as K-pop, is perhaps its biggest export. A truly global phenomenon, groups like Blackpink and BTS, South Korea’s answer to The Beatles, have put the East Asian nation on the artistic map. Of course, South Korea exports much more than chart-topping music. It also exports semiconductors, automobiles, and refined petroleum.

Now, though, South Korea finds itself importing more than it exports. Its economy looks increasingly fragile. There are a number of reasons why South Korea is struggling. One of these reasons involves China, which poses a significant threat to South Korea’s economic well-being.

South Korea’s export-driven economy makes it particularly sensitive to conditions in the global economy. In June, the South Korean won fell to a 13-year low. As The New York Times reported, the last time the country’s currency breached the 1,300-won threshold was in the summer of 2009, near the tail end of the global financial crisis.

In August, South Korea posted a record trade deficit of almost $9.5 billion due to a weak currency and high energy prices. As the author Andrew Salmon noted, South Korea has been suffering devastating monthly trade deficits since the month of April. Salmon also referenced a report by Yonhap that shows a distinct “drop off in sales to the world’s biggest buyer of Korean exports, China.” In August, he added, “Korea’s exports to China were just $13.13 billion in August, an over 5% fall year-on-year.”

Going back to K-pop, one of South Korea’s biggest exports, for a minute. Last year, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) made a concerted effort to crack down on K-pop fandom in China. The CCP viewed (and, one assumes, still views) Korean music as a threat to its morality, children, and ideological security. The crackdown might seem trivial to some readers, but as the scholar Joseph Nye demonstrated, one should never underestimate the value of soft power.

The K-pop industry has an export value of $756 million. Denying the youth of China unfettered access to teenage heartthrobs is, in fact, a huge economic issue. In August, Reuters reported the foreign ministers of South Korea and China met to discuss the resumption of K-pop and other cultural exports. The talks resulted in a partial lifting of the ban on Korean films, but not necessarily the ban on Korean music. More recently, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol extended an invitation to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Rather incredibly, Xi hasn’t traveled to South Korea since 2014, a year after entering office. Why?

In short, there’s little love lost between the two countries, especially now that South Korea has made it abundantly clear that it wants to side with the United States, the Chinese regime’s biggest rival. Understandably, this has upset the communists in Beijing. In May of this year, President Joe Biden launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an initiative that seeks to foster fairer trade and build supply chain resilience. With 14 members, IPEF was designed to counter the threat posed by the CCP. Shortly after launching the initiative, Yoon promised to join the IPEF, stressing the importance of the initiative and the need to create “a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.”

To rub even more salt in the CCP’s wounds, the South Korean president has also expressed his interest in turning the Quad—a diplomatic dialogue and an informal security alliance designed to address the rise of communist China—into a Quint. Don’t be surprised if Xi fails to accept Yoon’s invitation.

A recent report by the Center for American Progress (CAP), a Washington-based institute, demonstrates how “public hostility” toward China is growing among Korean citizens. This hostility is bad news for China but great news for “the United States, Japan, and other regional partners,” the authors write.

The report discusses a research poll conducted earlier this year in South Korea. The results show that both Millennials and Gen Zers, the backbone of the country’s economy, are the catalysts for increasing anti-China sentiment. South Korean politicians, insist the authors, would do well to acknowledge the attitudes of both Millennials and Gen Zers, as they represent “an increasingly important bloc of swing voters.”

The will of the people, it seems, is propelling South Korea in the direction of the United States. However, considering Beijing and Seoul are less than 600 miles apart, this rising anti-China sentiment could cost the Koreans dearly. If distance makes the heart grow fonder, then proximity may very well be a recipe for disaster.

Some authors fear that if the Chinese regime invades Taiwan, it could set its sights on invading South Korea. This might sound far-fetched, and maybe it is. Then again, maybe it’s not. After all, the former editor of Global Times, a mouthpiece of the CCP, once uttered the following: “If South Korea chooses a path that is hostile to its neighbors, the end of that path could be Ukraine.” In other words, continue cozying up to the United States at your own peril.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.