Chinese Blockade of Taiwan Will Likely Fail, Pentagon Says

Chinese Blockade of Taiwan Will Likely Fail, Pentagon Says - The Chinese military will likely fail if it tries to blockade Taiwan, senior Pentagon officials told Congress on Sept. 20, noting that there will be “nothing easy” for the regime in invading the self-ruled liberal democratic island.

Sep 22, 2023 - 04:44

Chinese Blockade of Taiwan Will Likely Fail, Pentagon Says

The Chinese military will likely fail if it tries to blockade Taiwan, senior Pentagon officials told Congress on Sept. 20, noting that there will be “nothing easy” for the regime in invading the self-ruled liberal democratic island.

“It would likely not succeed. And it would be a huge risk of escalation for the PRC, where it would likely have to consider whether or not it was willing to ultimately start attacking commercial maritime vessels," Ely Ratner, U.S. assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, told the House Armed Services Committee, using an acronym for the People's Republic of China.

Mr. Ratner argues that a blockade would be so devastating to the international economy that it would mobilize an international coalition against Beijing's actions. Taiwan, he added, would also receive aid of industrial resources, raw materials, energy, and other critical items from international allies, dimming Beijing’s chances of success.

“This would be a monster risk for the PRC and a huge miscalculation,” he said.

Army Major General Joseph McGee, who handles strategy, policy, and planning for the Pentagon’s joint staff, agreed that a blockade isn’t very likely in light of the hurdles.

“I think it is an option but probably not a highly likely option,” he told lawmakers. It’s “much easier to talk about a blockade than actually do a blockade.”

He noted that Taiwan takes the threat of being cut off seriously and “takes a responsibility to keep their nation provisioned with enough food to be able to survive a blockade of a fairly significant amount of time.”

Beijing over the past few years has escalated military pressure on Taiwan, the territory it has long vowed to take over since the communists took over mainland China in 1949. CIA Director William Burns in February warned that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ordered his troops to be ready to mount an invasion by 2027. While the year may not represent the actual timeline of a military attack, Mr. Burns said it’s a sign of the regime’s "seriousness" in pursuing the goal.

In the 24-hour span beginning 6 a.m. on Sunday, the Chinese Communist Party sent 103 fighter jets around the island, a provocation that prompted Taiwan’s defense officials to decry the “destructive” actions.

Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also told reporters on Sept. 18 that there’s no “'median line' in the Taiwan Strait.” Although Beijing has never formally recognized the line 80 kilometers off the Chinese and Taiwanese coastlines, it has mostly acted in accordance with U.S. pressure not to cross the Davis median line, established during the Cold War in 1954 in the U.S.-Taiwan Mutual Defense Treaty.

Historically, there have been only four reported Chinese military incursions across the line, with China respecting the line when cross-straight relations are good, but challenging it when relations turn for the worse. Most recently, since September 2020, Beijing started sending many airplanes across the line as well as into Taiwan's self-enforced Air Defense Identification Zone, which overlaps with Chinese airspace.

In a report released on Sept. 12, Taiwan’s defense ministry said that Beijing has been ramping up military activities along the coastline facing the island by permanently stationing fighters and drones there. The regime has also deployed weather balloons and civilian aircraft for spying purposes, according to the ministry.

Still, carrying out a frontal attack on Taiwan would be no easy feat, the military general argues.

A surprise attack will not happen, as "they would have to mass tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of troops on the eastern coast, and that would be a clear signal,” said Mr. McGee. Launching a combined amphibious and air assault operation would be “incredibly complicated,” not to mention the Chinese military would be marching along a distance of 90 to 120 miles in crossing the Taiwan Strait, “susceptible to all the fires that could be brought upon an invading force that was already telegraphing their intentions,” he added.

“They would also encounter an island that has very few beaches where you could land craft on mountainous terrain, and a population that we believe would be willing to fight,” he said. “So there is absolutely nothing easy about a PLA invasion of Taiwan.”

Beijing's Maximum Pressure Campaign

Military aggression isn’t the only way China’s ruling regime exerts pressure on its democratically governed neighbor.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, in a recorded address at a United Nations General Assembly side event, the Concordia Summit, noted that every day, Beijing “initiates millions of cyberattacks as well as frequent military exercises and other forms of gray-zone activities as a way to apply maximum pressure on Taiwan and its friends.”

Responding to concerns about China using artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies to carry out influence operations, Audrey Tang, the island’s digital minister, said that the National Institute of Cyber Security that he oversees has devoted significant resources to detect foreign threat actors with spontaneity.

Taiwan's minister of digital affairs Audrey Tang at the Concordia Summit in New York on Sept. 19, 2023. (Richard Moore/The Epoch Times)
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In August 2022, in response to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) trip to Taiwan, Chinese state hackers breached Taiwan's government websites, paralyzing their operations. The hackers also infiltrated the ubiquitous 7-Eleven convenience stores to display a message telling Ms. Pelosi to “get out of Taiwan.”

“It’s no longer a cyberattack in the traditional sense,” the digital minister told The Epoch Times, describing that operation as a “warning bell.” “There are elements of information manipulation,” and there’s “considerable room” for malicious maneuvering.

Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s representative to the United States, told a Concordia Summit panel that Taiwan has to “constantly refine our democracy in a way that we are resilient to coercion,” in part by investing in defense capabilities, deepening partnership with the United States, and involving other global partners to preserve the status quo.

Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan's representative to the United States, speaks at the Concordia Summit in New York on Sept. 20, 2023. (Richard Moore/The Epoch Times)
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“Hong Kong is a tragic reminder that we need to do more to preserve the freedoms and the democratic system that we have worked so hard to build,” she said at the panel.

Taiwan hasn’t been part of the U.N. assembly since 1971, when the international body recognized the mainland regime as the legitimate representative of China to the U.N.

The exclusion, Ms. Hsiao said, was part of the “unreasonable and unfair effort to isolate Taiwan.”

Paraguay, the last South American country with formal relations with Taiwan, on Sept. 19 signaled support for Taiwan’s return to the U.N., and G7 leaders in a same-day statement also advocated for Taiwan’s “meaningful participation in international organizations.”

Ms. Hsiao said that overcoming such challenges requires “innovation and creativity.”

“The peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait isn’t just the hope from the people of Taiwan, it also aligns with the interests of the international community,” Ms. Hsiao told The Epoch Times, adding that she expects the topic to be a key component of Taiwan’s diplomacy going forward.

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