Can Beijing Accept the Change in the Southwest Pacific?

Commentary Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni (“Siti”) Rabuka, 74, returned to office on Dec. 24, 2022, restoring experienced strategic leadership to the Southwest Pacific. But he faces challenges from friends and enemies alike. His return to national leadership after almost a quarter-century is a major milestone in the competition in the region between China and the West. It is a clear setback for Beijing. Yet the current political climate in Washington, Canberra, and Wellington is not in harmony with his conservative, nationalist views. And also, because of domestic challenges, Rabuka’s return to power is not yet solidified. Fiji has remained highly dependent on its historical strategic and social relationships with Australia and New Zealand, as well as with the United States. But some officials in the Fijian government had become, under the outgoing government, comfortable with the easier largesse available from China as had many in the trading and political communities in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. Rabuka was never one to waver on this score. Indeed, Rabuka makes many political, military, and civil service leaders in Canberra and Wellington nervous, because he has a greater depth of experience, as well as a background of military command and recognized gallantry in conflict (Lebanon) than his regional counterparts. Neither is he afraid to speak frankly. Fiji, a Commonwealth country of just less than 1 million population, is strategically placed in a command position in the Southwest Pacific, with 320 islands grouped around the Koro Sea, about 1,000 miles north of New Zealand. So Rabuka’s election is of keen importance to Beijing and Washington, as well as the Pacific Islands communities. So this is no time for Fiji to be taken lightly, particularly as the Chinese regime escalates its bid to control much of the Melanesian world, of which Fiji and Papua New Guinea are the leaders. There are concerns, however, that the outgoing prime minister—a former commander of the Fijian Armed Forces, like Rabuka himself—Commodore Josaia Voreqe (Frank) Bainimarama, has not happily accepted his political defeat in the December 2022 elections. And this may possibly also apply to the incumbent commander of the Fijian Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Jone Kalouniwai, who rose from being director-general of National Security and Intelligence at the Ministry of Defence. Gen. Kalouniwai on Jan. 17, shortly after the new Rabuka government took office, issued a statement questioning the government’s judgment. They were vague concerns about the “ambition and speed” of changes being made, and that the government was taking “shortcuts that circumvent the relevant processes and procedures,” which could lead to “long-term national security consequences.” However, he did not provide any specific details. It was later claimed that he was talking about issues that had nothing to do with national security per se, and which were, indeed, outside the purview of a defense chief. Why, indeed, was he even issuing a statement? A Chinese-flagged fishing vessel (2nd L) enters Suva Harbor on July 15, 2022. (William West/AFP via Getty Images) But was this a hint that Kalouniwai saw himself as the next coup leader, emulating Rabuka (two coups in 1987) and Bainimarama (coup leader in 2000) themselves? Clearly, Beijing would encourage that line of thought in Kalouniwai, just as Washington, Canberra, and Wellington would not. Perhaps the general was thinking nothing of the sort. Still, in overstepping his portfolio he raised questions, and possibly made it necessary for Rabuka—with discreet indications of support from his allies—to ensure he had his own man in charge of the Armed Forces. The Armed Forces, in fact, need significant upgrading, although they have a core of well-trained, proven personnel, who had featured strongly in global peacekeeping operations. Australia had provided the Fijian Naval Service with three 31.5m Pacific Forum patrol boats and two new 39.5m Guardian-class patrol boats (the second to be delivered in 2023). But these vessels are unsuited for Fiji’s blue water and inter-island needs, something Rabuka, even in opposition, had constantly told the Australians. Rabuka’s return should signal that the Australasian paternalism of the past century toward Fiji needs to move to a true partnership, and to a major AUKUS (Australia-United Kingdom-United States) focus on strategic and economic investment in Fiji if the AUKUS powers and New Zealand are to remove Fiji as a possible target for further expansion by China. Fiji, under Rabuka, could be a key starting point in retaking the Southwest Pacific. The United States has long maintained an embassy in Suva, the Fijian capital. Could Washington, London, and Canberra each consider developing their defense relationship with Fiji to include basing there for AUKUS vessels? In other words, is the time right for Fiji to move away from its traditional neutrality? Views expr